Lorient 1–0 Paris FC: Result, Report and Stats
Ligue 1 · Sunday 11 October 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-17
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Result: Lorient 1 – 0 Paris FC
- Before kick-off the prices, margin removed, gave Lorient win 32%. The market had leaned to a Paris FC win (40%); the result went against it.
- Asian handicap Lorient +0.25: won for Lorient backers.
- Goals line 2.5: 1 goal, so the over lost and the under won.
Every prediction on this page was published before kick-off and is left as it was. Moneyball's own model reading of this match, and how it compared with the result, is in the Match Centre.
Lorient welcome Paris FC to Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir in Lorient in Ligue 1 action on Sunday 11 October 2026.
Lorient have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Paris FC have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Lorient 32%, the draw 28%, Paris FC 40%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Lorient +0.25 at 1.86, Paris FC at 2.04. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.89, under 2.00, which gives over 51%.
Lorient: form and key numbers
In style Lorient are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.07 a match created, 1.33 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.4).
- Shots: 10.0 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 46.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Paris FC: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.54 a match created, 0.83 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.2).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 51.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Lorient vs Paris FC: season averages side by side
| Lorient | Per match | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|
| 1.07 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.54 |
| 1.33 | xG conceded | 0.83 |
| 1.00 | Goals | 1.33 |
| 10.0 | Shots | 13.7 |
| 3.5 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 1.7 | Big chances missed | 1.2 |
| 37.9 | Pressure share % | 53.5 |
| 14.8 | Tackles | 18.3 |
| 9.2 | Fouls | 13.7 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 6 measured matches.
Lorient vs Paris FC: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Lorient have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1 of the last 3 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Lorient 2, Paris FC 3 - 1.7 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Lorient 1-0 Paris FC (October 10th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 3 meetings Lorient won 1, drew 1 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 2026 | Lorient | 1 – 0 | Paris FC |
| 5 Apr 2026 | Lorient | 1 – 1 | Paris FC |
| 3 Oct 2025 | Paris FC | 2 – 0 | Lorient |
Players to watch
Lorient
- Arthur Avom CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 66 · Reads the game, Long passer (top 4% of his position)
- Nathaniel Adjei CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Secure passer, Reads the game (top 6% of his position)
Paris FC
- Pierre Lees-Melou DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 65 · Ball-winner, Long passer (top 4% of his position)
- Maxime Lopez DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 59 · Secure passer, Ball circulator (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lassine Sinayoko
Lassine Sinayoko, 26 · Paris · CF · Pressing forward · Moneyball Score 63
Lassine Sinayoko, 26, plays as a centre-forward for Paris in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected goals. Weakest in aerial duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 63
- SS · Second striker Competent, 51
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 1.90 / 90 | 91% |
| Expected goals | 0.64 / 90 | 78% |
| Shots on target | 50% | 73% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 xG/shot | 70% |
| Shots | 3.45 / 90 | 67% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Chance creator.
- What Lassine Sinayoko is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lassine Sinayoko's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lorient vs Paris FC prediction
Paris FC should have more of the ball, with Lorient likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Lorient are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.1 goals - 0.94 for Lorient and 1.16 for Paris FC - with over 2.5 goals at 35% and both teams scoring at 43%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Lorient 1-1 Paris FC
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Lorient vs Paris FC betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 65% by the model, 2.09 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 6.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
- Lille vs Brest Saturday 17 October 2026
- Troyes vs Lens Saturday 17 October 2026
- Angers vs Marseille Sunday 18 October 2026
- Le Havre vs Auxerre Sunday 18 October 2026
- Lorient vs AS Monaco Sunday 18 October 2026
Lorient vs Paris FC: questions and answers
When is Lorient vs Paris FC?
Lorient vs Paris FC is on Sunday 11 October 2026, in Ligue 1.
Where is Lorient vs Paris FC played?
At Stade Yves Allainmat - Le Moustoir, Lorient, Lorient's home ground.
Who will win Lorient vs Paris FC?
It is close: Lorient 32%, draw 28%, Paris FC 40%. Our prediction is Lorient 1-1 Paris FC.
Who is the player to watch in Lorient vs Paris FC?
Lassine Sinayoko of Paris: a pressing forward with a Moneyball Score of 63 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lorient vs Paris FC?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 35%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.