Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 3
Europa Conference League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · updated 2026-10-22
Lugano welcome Kauno Žalgiris in Europa Conference League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Lugano have played 7 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 71% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 80% win rate. Kauno Žalgiris have played 6 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Lugano are clear favourites at 73%, with the draw at 17% and Kauno Žalgiris at 10%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Lugano 2.53, Kauno Žalgiris 0.87.
- Over 2.5 goals: 66% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Lugano: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.37 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.6).
- Shots: 17.6 a match, 5.9 on target.
- Possession: 55.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.00.
Kauno Žalgiris: form and key numbers
- Shots: 7.5 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 50.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.34.
Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: season averages side by side
| Lugano | Per match this season | Kauno Žalgiris |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 6 |
| 2.3 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 2.37 | Expected goals (xG) | – |
| 17.6 | Shots | 7.5 |
| 5.9 | On target | 4.2 |
| 55.3 | Possession % | 50.8 |
| 29% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 5.6 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 1.1 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 7.00 | Average rating | 6.34 |
Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 2.53 for Lugano and 0.87 for Kauno Žalgiris - with over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 54%. Lugano have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Lugano 2-0 Kauno Žalgiris
Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris betting tips
- Tip 1: Lugano to win 73% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 66% by the model, 3.40 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa Conference League previews
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- Pafos FC vs Riga Thursday 22 October 2026
- Inter Club d'Escaldes vs Universitatea Craiova Thursday 22 October 2026
- Getafe vs Lugano Thursday 22 October 2026
- Kauno Žalgiris vs Brann Thursday 22 October 2026
- Jablonec vs Brighton & Hove Albion Thursday 22 October 2026
- Crvena Zvezda vs FC København Thursday 22 October 2026
Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris: questions and answers
When is Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris?
Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 3.
Who will win Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris?
Lugano are the favourites: Lugano 73%, draw 17%, Kauno Žalgiris 10%. Our prediction is Lugano 2-0 Kauno Žalgiris.
How many goals will there be in Lugano vs Kauno Žalgiris?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.