Lyon vs Nice Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 7
Ligue 1 · Sunday 18 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-17
Lyon welcome Nice to Groupama Stadium in Décines-Charpieu in Ligue 1 Gameweek 7 action on Sunday 18 October 2026.
Lyon have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 67% win rate. Nice have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Lyon are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 25% and Nice at 21%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Lyon -0.5 at 1.68, Nice at 2.28. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.83, under 2.05, which gives over 53%.
Lyon: form and key numbers
In style Lyon play long and direct, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.80 a match created, 1.08 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.2).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 52.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Nice: form and key numbers
In style Nice keep the ball, press high.
- Expected goals: 0.99 a match created, 1.36 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 11.7 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 55.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Lyon vs Nice: season averages side by side
| Lyon | Per match | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.99 |
| 1.08 | xG conceded | 1.36 |
| 1.83 | Goals | 0.83 |
| 13.3 | Shots | 11.7 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 3.5 |
| 2.0 | Big chances missed | 1.8 |
| 52.3 | Pressure share % | 55.3 |
| 15.0 | Tackles | 15.8 |
| 11.8 | Fouls | 8.7 |
| 1.7 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 6 measured matches.
Lyon vs Nice: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Lyon have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Lyon 10, Nice 4 - 3.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Lyon 2-0 Nice (February 15th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Lyon won 3, drew 0 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb 2026 | Lyon | 2 – 0 | Nice |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Nice | 3 – 2 | Lyon |
| 9 Mar 2025 | Nice | 0 – 2 | Lyon |
| 1 Dec 2024 | Lyon | 4 – 1 | Nice |
Players to watch
Lyon
- Dominik Greif GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 73 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
- Corentin Tolisso CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 58 · Creator, Reads the game (top 6% of his position)
Nice
- Xavier Mandza DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 59 · Ball circulator, Long passer (top 9% of his position)
- Jonathan Clauss RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 58 · Creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 11% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ernest Nuamah
Ernest Nuamah, 22 · Olympique Lyonnais · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 67
Ernest Nuamah, 22, plays as a winger for Olympique Lyonnais in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 67
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.53 / 90 | 95% |
| Shots | 3.33 / 90 | 81% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.14 / 90 | 76% |
| Big chances created | 0.48 / 90 | 74% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.95 / 90 | 68% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume.
- What Ernest Nuamah is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ernest Nuamah's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lyon vs Nice prediction
Nice should have more of the ball; Lyon go long and direct; Nice press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.69 for Lyon and 0.78 for Nice - with over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams scoring at 45%. Lyon have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Lyon 1-0 Nice
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Lyon vs Nice betting tips
- Tip 1: Lyon win or draw (double chance) 79% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 55% by the model, 2.48 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 10.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026
- Lille vs Brest Saturday 17 October 2026
- Troyes vs Lens Saturday 17 October 2026
- Angers vs Marseille Sunday 18 October 2026
- Le Havre vs Auxerre Sunday 18 October 2026
- Lorient vs AS Monaco Sunday 18 October 2026
Lyon vs Nice: questions and answers
When is Lyon vs Nice?
Lyon vs Nice is on Sunday 18 October 2026, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 7.
Where is Lyon vs Nice played?
At Groupama Stadium, Décines-Charpieu, Lyon's home ground.
Who will win Lyon vs Nice?
Lyon are the favourites: Lyon 54%, draw 25%, Nice 21%. Our prediction is Lyon 1-0 Nice.
Who is the player to watch in Lyon vs Nice?
Ernest Nuamah of Olympique Lyonnais: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lyon vs Nice?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.