Manchester City 2–4 Paris Saint Germain: Result, Report and Stats

UEFA Champions League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-17

This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.

Result: Manchester City 2 – 4 Paris Saint Germain

Before kick-off the prices, margin removed, gave Paris Saint Germain win 31%. The market had leaned to a Manchester City win (44%); the result went against it.
Asian handicap Manchester City -0.25: lost for Manchester City backers.
Goals line 3.5: 6 goals, so the over won and the under lost.

Every prediction on this page was published before kick-off and is left as it was. Moneyball's own model reading of this match, and how it compared with the result, is in the Match Centre.

Manchester City welcome Paris Saint Germain to Etihad Stadium in Manchester in UEFA Champions League action on Thursday 15 October 2026.

Manchester City have played 6 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 2.7 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 100% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Paris Saint Germain have played 6 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate.

On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Manchester City are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 24% and Paris Saint Germain at 31%.

The odds

Manchester City2.0544%

Draw3.7424%

Paris Saint Germain2.8831%

Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Manchester City -0.25 at 1.89, Paris Saint Germain at 1.99. The main goals line is 3.5: over 2.04, under 1.83, which gives over 47%.

Manchester City: form and key numbers

In style Manchester City keep the ball, press high, take players on.

Expected goals: 1.88 a match created, 1.13 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.7).
Shots: 13.8 a match, 5.2 on target.
Possession: 63.5% on average.
Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% at home).
Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
Corners: 6.2 a match.
Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.05.

Paris Saint Germain: form and key numbers

In style Paris Saint Germain keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.

Expected goals: 2.43 a match created, 1.09 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.6).
Shots: 21.3 a match, 7.3 on target.
Possession: 67.2% on average.
Clean sheets: 17% of matches (100% away).
Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
Corners: 5.7 a match.
Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.00.

Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain: season averages side by side

Manchester City	Per match	Paris Saint Germain
1.88	Expected goals (xG)	2.43
1.13	xG conceded	1.09
2.67	Goals	1.83
13.8	Shots	21.3
5.2	Shots on target	7.3
2.2	Big chances missed	4.0
67.0	Pressure share %	79.9
11.8	Tackles	15.2
11.2	Fouls	5.8
1.3	Yellow cards	1.2

Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 6 measured matches.

Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain: head-to-head stats and key numbers

Manchester City have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 3 of the last 9 meetings in our data.
Goals in those games: Manchester City 13, Paris Saint Germain 14 - 3.0 a match.
The most recent meeting finished Manchester City 2-4 Paris Saint Germain (October 14th 2026).

Head to head

In their last 6 meetings Manchester City won 3, drew 0 and lost 3.

Date	Home	Score	Away
14 Oct 2026	Manchester City	2 – 4	Paris Saint Germain
22 Jan 2025	Paris Saint Germain	4 – 2	Manchester City
24 Nov 2021	Manchester City	2 – 1	Paris Saint Germain
28 Sep 2021	Paris Saint Germain	2 – 0	Manchester City
4 May 2021	Manchester City	2 – 0	Paris Saint Germain
28 Apr 2021	Paris Saint Germain	1 – 2	Manchester City

Players to watch

Manchester City

Josko Gvardiol LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 74 · Duel winner, Creator (top 8% of his position)
Elliot Anderson DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 69 · Duel winner, Ball circulator (top 2% of his position)

Paris Saint Germain

Désiré Doué RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 76 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 5% of his position)
Fabián Ruiz CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 74 · Creator, Press-resistant (top 3% of his position)

Scouting spotlight: Rayan Cherki

Rayan Cherki, 23 · Manchester City · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 80

Rayan Cherki, 23, plays as an attacking midfielder for Manchester City in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and pass accuracy. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.

Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.

Positions he can play

CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 80
LW · Winger Accomplished, 75
RW · Winger Accomplished, 75

Where he is strongest

Figure	His number	Better than
Expected assists (est.)	0.40 / 90	95%
Pass accuracy	91%	93%
Big chances created	0.68 / 90	92%
Key passes	3.18 / 90	89%
Expected goals	0.44 / 90	89%

Roles he suits

★★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
★★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
★★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker

Scout's notes: Creator, Secure passer, Big-chance creator.

In Moneyball Scout

What Rayan Cherki is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age

Open Rayan Cherki's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month

Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain prediction

Paris Saint Germain should have more of the ball; both like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.97 for Manchester City and 1.38 for Paris Saint Germain - with over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 65%. Manchester City have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.

Prediction: Manchester City 2-1 Paris Saint Germain

The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre

Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain betting tips

Tip 1: Manchester City win or draw (double chance) 69% between them
Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 65% by the model, 3.35 goals expected
Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.5 cards a match between them
Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.8 corners a match between them

Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.

Moneyball's pick

The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.

Open Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain in the Match Centre Follow it live

Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain: questions and answers

When is Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain?

Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain is on Thursday 15 October 2026, in UEFA Champions League.

Where is Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain played?

At Etihad Stadium, Manchester, Manchester City's home ground.

Who will win Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain?

Manchester City are the favourites: Manchester City 44%, draw 24%, Paris Saint Germain 31%. Our prediction is Manchester City 2-1 Paris Saint Germain.

Who is the player to watch in Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain?

Rayan Cherki of Manchester City: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 80 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.

How many goals will there be in Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain?

Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 65%.