MoneyballDixon-Coles · xG fusion
Back to Moneyball

Manchester United 3-2 Roma: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

Full time: Manchester United 3-2 Roma

Manchester United 3-2 Roma: Manchester United took the points in Champions League Matchday 4 on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at Old Trafford. The goals: Matías Soulé 11', Donyell Malen 17', Bruno Fernandes 58', Matheus Cunha 83', Matheus Cunha 86'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.

How Manchester United won it

Matías Soulé put Roma ahead in the 11th minute, set up by Rodrigo Mora. Donyell Malen from the penalty spot made it 0-2 to Roma in the 17th minute. Bruno Fernandes from the penalty spot made it 1-2 to Manchester United in the 58th minute. Manchester United levelled at 2-2 in the 83rd minute through Matheus Cunha, set up by Bruno Fernandes. Manchester United turned it round: Matheus Cunha made it 3-2 in the 86th minute, set up by Shea Lacey. It came late, and it settled the match.

Roma led by two and lost: Manchester United came back to win it.

It was 0-2 at half-time, and the second half turned the match the other way.

Matheus Cunha scored twice.

The lead changed hands once.

Matheus Cunha of Manchester United was sent off in the 90th minute (+1) for a second yellow card. The referee, J. Gil Manzano, showed 7 yellow cards: 4 to Manchester United and 3 to Roma.

Manchester United: M. Carrick, 4-2-3-1 · Roma: G. Gasperini, 3-4-2-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was AS Roma +0.25, and on 3-2 it was wrong.

The estimate's most likely result was a Roma win at 39%; a Manchester United win, at 37%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (11%).

The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.2 goals and there were 5.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 62%; with 5 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 64%; both did, in line with the estimate.

The pre-match consensus had a Manchester United win at 40%, a different lean from Moneyball's.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-11-03, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

Manchester United had 6 shots on target, Roma 4.

Manchester United had 52% of the ball and turned it into the win.

A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Manchester United came into it with 4 Champions League matches played, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.0 a match, with 1.81 expected goals for and – against, and had won 50% of their matches.

Roma came into it with 4 Champions League matches played, scoring 2.5 and conceding 2.0 a match, with 1.81 expected goals for and – against, and had won 25% of their matches.

Manchester United vs Roma: the match in numbers

Manchester UnitedMatch statisticsRoma
52%Ball possession48%
15Total shots7
6Shots on target4
3Big chances2
504Total passes458
83%Pass accuracy82%
3Corners1
11Fouls14
1Offsides2
21Tackles20
2Saves2
5Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Matheus Cunha (Manchester United), rated 9.2 by Sportmonks, with 2 goals.

Manchester United

Roma

The lowest-rated starter was Devis Vásquez at 5.8. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Manchester United vs Roma

What was the score in Manchester United vs Roma?

Manchester United 3-2 Roma (half-time 0-2), Champions League, Tuesday 3 November 2026.

Who scored in Manchester United vs Roma?

Matías Soulé 11', Donyell Malen 17', Bruno Fernandes 58', Matheus Cunha 83', Matheus Cunha 86'.

Did Moneyball predict Manchester United vs Roma correctly?

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was AS Roma +0.25, and on 3-2 it was wrong.

Who was man of the match in Manchester United vs Roma?

Matheus Cunha, rated 9.2 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Manchester United vs Roma?

J. Gil Manzano.

Every match, before and after

Moneyball writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.

Open Moneyball Match Live All match reports

Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.