Manchester United 4–4 Aston Villa: Result, Report and Stats
Premier League · Monday 9 November 2026 · played · updated 2026-11-13
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Result: Manchester United 4 – 4 Aston Villa
- Before kick-off the pre-match consensus gave the draw 26%. The consensus had leaned to a Manchester United win (43%); the result went against it.
- 8 goals in the match.
Every prediction on this page was published before kick-off and is left as it was. Moneyball's own model reading of this match, and how it compared with the result, is in Match Live.
Manchester United welcome Aston Villa to Old Trafford in Manchester in Premier League action on Monday 9 November 2026.
Manchester United have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 10% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate. Aston Villa have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 30% of them. Away from home they average 1.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On the pre-match consensus, Manchester United are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 26% and Aston Villa at 31%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 3 goals: 53%.
Manchester United: form and key numbers
In style Manchester United keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.76 a match created, 1.49 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.6).
- Shots: 19.3 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 55.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Aston Villa: form and key numbers
In style Aston Villa are happy without the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.37 a match created, 1.95 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 45.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.72.
Manchester United vs Aston Villa: season averages side by side
| Manchester United | Per match | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 1.76 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.37 |
| 1.49 | xG conceded | 1.95 |
| 1.40 | Goals | 1.40 |
| 19.3 | Shots | 11.9 |
| 5.4 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 1.7 | Big chances missed | 1.2 |
| 58.3 | Pressure share % | 35.0 |
| 17.8 | Tackles | 18.1 |
| 11.8 | Fouls | 11.2 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 10 and 10 measured matches.
Manchester United vs Aston Villa: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Manchester United have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of the last 5 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Manchester United 10, Aston Villa 7 - 3.4 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Manchester United 4-4 Aston Villa (November 8th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 5 meetings Manchester United won 2, drew 2 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov 2026 | Manchester United | 4 – 4 | Aston Villa |
| 15 Mar 2026 | Manchester United | 3 – 1 | Aston Villa |
| 21 Dec 2025 | Aston Villa | 2 – 1 | Manchester United |
| 25 May 2025 | Manchester United | 2 – 0 | Aston Villa |
| 6 Oct 2024 | Aston Villa | 0 – 0 | Manchester United |
Players to watch
Manchester United
- Kobbie Mainoo CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 73 · Dribbler, Ball circulator (top 1% of his position)
- Youri Tielemans CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 69 · Creator, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
Aston Villa
- Zion Suzuki GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 79 · Box defender, Shot-stopper (top 6% of his position)
- Alysson RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 68 · Dribbler, Big-chance creator (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Bruno Fernandes
Bruno Fernandes, 32 · Manchester United · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 74
Bruno Fernandes, 32, plays as an attacking midfielder for Manchester United in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in shots and key passes. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 74
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 71
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 68
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 3.44 / 90 | 97% |
| Key passes | 2.56 / 90 | 96% |
| Expected goals | 0.42 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.29 / 90 | 92% |
| Dispossessed | 0.78 / 90 | 91% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Bruno Fernandes is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Bruno Fernandes's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction
Manchester United should have more of the ball, with Aston Villa likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Manchester United work the ball wide and cross; Aston Villa like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 2.07 for Manchester United and 1.47 for Aston Villa - with over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams scoring at 68%. Manchester United have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Manchester United 3-1 Aston Villa
Manchester United vs Aston Villa: what the numbers say
- 1. Manchester United unbeaten (win or draw) 69% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 69% by the model, 3.54 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 68% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.2 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Manchester United vs Aston Villa: questions and answers
When is Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
Manchester United vs Aston Villa is on Monday 9 November 2026, in the Premier League.
Where is Manchester United vs Aston Villa played?
At Old Trafford, Manchester, Manchester United's home ground.
Who will win Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
Manchester United are the favourites: Manchester United 43%, draw 26%, Aston Villa 31%. Our prediction is Manchester United 3-1 Aston Villa.
Who is the player to watch in Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
Bruno Fernandes of Manchester United: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Manchester United vs Aston Villa?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.