Marseille vs Le Havre Prediction and Betting Tips
Ligue 1 · Monday 26 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Marseille welcome Le Havre to Stade Vélodrome in Marseille in Ligue 1 action on Monday 26 October 2026.
Marseille have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate. Le Havre have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Marseille are narrow favourites at 59%, with the draw at 23% and Le Havre at 19%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Marseille -1 at 2.02, Le Havre at 1.89. The main goals line is 3: over 1.98, under 1.90, which gives over 49%.
Marseille: form and key numbers
In style Marseille keep the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.55 a match created, 1.94 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 57.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Le Havre: form and key numbers
In style Le Havre press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.65 a match created, 1.58 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.9).
- Shots: 15.7 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 49.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Marseille vs Le Havre: season averages side by side
| Marseille | Per match | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|
| 1.55 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.65 |
| 1.94 | xG conceded | 1.58 |
| 1.50 | Goals | 0.67 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 15.7 |
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 4.5 |
| 1.7 | Big chances missed | 0.8 |
| 47.9 | Pressure share % | 58.7 |
| 13.3 | Tackles | 19.2 |
| 10.5 | Fouls | 14.3 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 6 measured matches.
Marseille vs Le Havre: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Marseille have won 4, drawn 0 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Marseille 15, Le Havre 4 - 4.8 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Le Havre 0-1 Marseille (May 10th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Marseille won 4, drew 0 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Le Havre | 0 – 1 | Marseille |
| 18 Oct 2025 | Marseille | 6 – 2 | Le Havre |
| 10 May 2025 | Le Havre | 1 – 3 | Marseille |
| 5 Jan 2025 | Marseille | 5 – 1 | Le Havre |
Players to watch
Marseille
- Jeffrey de Lange GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 12% of his position)
- CJ Egan-Riley CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 62 · Secure passer, Disciplined (top 8% of his position)
Le Havre
- Lionel Mpasi-Nzau GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 65 · Shot-stopper, Dominant in the air (top 5% of his position)
- Djibril Ouziad RWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 58 · Dribbler, Duel winner (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Emerson
Emerson, 32 · Olympique Marseille · LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 67
Emerson, 32, plays as a full-back for Olympique Marseille in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and accurate crosses. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 67
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.20 / 90 | 95% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.01 / 90 | 94% |
| Passes | 58.31 / 90 | 92% |
| Dribbled past | 0.34 / 90 | 88% |
| Key passes | 1.01 / 90 | 74% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★ Defensive full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Creator, Crosser, Ball circulator.
- What Emerson is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Marseille vs Le Havre prediction
Marseille should have more of the ball, with Le Havre likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Marseille like to take players on; Le Havre work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.65 for Marseille and 1.25 for Le Havre - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 58%. Marseille have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Marseille 2-1 Le Havre
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Marseille vs Le Havre betting tips
- Tip 1: Marseille to win 59% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 55% by the model, 2.89 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Marseille vs Le Havre: questions and answers
When is Marseille vs Le Havre?
Marseille vs Le Havre is on Monday 26 October 2026, in Ligue 1.
Where is Marseille vs Le Havre played?
At Stade Vélodrome, Marseille, Marseille's home ground.
Who will win Marseille vs Le Havre?
Marseille are the favourites: Marseille 59%, draw 23%, Le Havre 19%. Our prediction is Marseille 2-1 Le Havre.
Who is the player to watch in Marseille vs Le Havre?
Emerson of Olympique Marseille: a attacking full-back with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Marseille vs Le Havre?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.