Mjällby vs Borac Banja Luka Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 3
Europa Conference League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Strandvallen, Sölvesborg · updated 2026-10-22
Mjällby welcome Borac Banja Luka to Strandvallen in Sölvesborg in Europa Conference League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Mjällby have played 4 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Borac Banja Luka have played 7 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 57% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Mjällby are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 30% and Borac Banja Luka at 27%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Mjällby 1.26, Borac Banja Luka 0.94.
- Over 2.5 goals: 38% · both teams to score: 44%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Mjällby: form and key numbers
- Shots: 10.0 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 53.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.40.
Borac Banja Luka: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.04 a match created (goals minus xG: +14.7).
- Shots: 9.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 46.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.46.
Mjällby vs Borac Banja Luka: season averages side by side
| Mjällby | Per match this season | Borac Banja Luka |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 2.1 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| – | Expected goals (xG) | 0.04 |
| 10.0 | Shots | 9.0 |
| 4.5 | On target | 5.0 |
| 53.8 | Possession % | 46.0 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 29% |
| 25% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 4.5 | Corners | 4.4 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 2.6 |
| 6.40 | Average rating | 6.46 |
Mjällby vs Borac Banja Luka prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals - 1.26 for Mjällby and 0.94 for Borac Banja Luka - with over 2.5 goals at 38% and both teams scoring at 44%. Mjällby have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Mjällby 1-0 Borac Banja Luka
Mjällby vs Borac Banja Luka betting tips
- Tip 1: Mjällby win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 62% by the model, 2.20 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 8.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Mjällby vs Borac Banja Luka: questions and answers
When is Mjällby vs Borac Banja Luka?
Mjällby vs Borac Banja Luka is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 3.
Where is Mjällby vs Borac Banja Luka played?
At Strandvallen, Sölvesborg, Mjällby's home ground.
Who will win Mjällby vs Borac Banja Luka?
Mjällby are the favourites: Mjällby 43%, draw 30%, Borac Banja Luka 27%. Our prediction is Mjällby 1-0 Borac Banja Luka.
How many goals will there be in Mjällby vs Borac Banja Luka?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 38%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.