Monaco vs SC Freiburg Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 2
Europa Conference League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Stade Louis II., Monaco · updated 2026-10-17
Monaco welcome SC Freiburg to Stade Louis II. in Monaco in Europa Conference League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Monaco have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 100% of them. At home they average 4.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 33% win rate. SC Freiburg have played 3 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 3.3 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 100% of them. Away from home they average 3.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Monaco 39%, the draw 22%, SC Freiburg 39%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Monaco 1.92, SC Freiburg 1.94.
- Over 2.5 goals: 74% · both teams to score: 74%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Monaco: form and key numbers
In style Monaco take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.61 a match created (goals minus xG: +4.2).
- Shots: 13.0 a match, 5.7 on target.
- Possession: 55.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.98.
SC Freiburg: form and key numbers
In style SC Freiburg keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 3.07 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.8).
- Shots: 25.7 a match, 10.0 on target.
- Possession: 63.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.7 a match.
- Discipline: 0.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.08.
Monaco vs SC Freiburg: season averages side by side
| Monaco | Per match this season | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 3 |
| 3.0 | Goals scored | 3.3 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.61 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.07 |
| 13.0 | Shots | 25.7 |
| 5.7 | On target | 10.0 |
| 55.3 | Possession % | 63.3 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 3.3 | Corners | 6.7 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 0.7 |
| 6.98 | Average rating | 7.08 |
Players to watch
Monaco
- Vanderson RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 77 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 4% of his position)
- Lamine Camara CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 64 · Ball-winner, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
SC Freiburg
- Matthias Ginter CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 66 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
- Philipp Treu RB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 51 · Hard to dribble past, Ball-winner (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic, 23 · SC Freiburg · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 69
Igor Matanovic, 23, plays as a centre-forward for SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in duels won and aerial duels won. Weakest in shot quality (xG per shot). Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 69
- SS · Second striker Competent, 56
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 9.25 / 90 | 98% |
| Aerial duels won | 4.16 / 90 | 92% |
| Shots on target | 59% | 83% |
| Shots | 3.93 / 90 | 81% |
| Big chances missed | 0.23 / 90 | 74% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Dominant in the air, Accurate shooter.
- What Igor Matanovic is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Igor Matanovic's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Monaco vs SC Freiburg prediction
SC Freiburg should have more of the ball, with Monaco likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Monaco like to take players on; SC Freiburg are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.9 goals - 1.92 for Monaco and 1.94 for SC Freiburg - with over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams scoring at 74%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Monaco 1-1 SC Freiburg
Monaco vs SC Freiburg betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 39%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 74% by the model, 3.87 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 74% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 1.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Monaco vs SC Freiburg: questions and answers
When is Monaco vs SC Freiburg?
Monaco vs SC Freiburg is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 19:00 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 2.
Where is Monaco vs SC Freiburg played?
At Stade Louis II., Monaco, Monaco's home ground.
Who will win Monaco vs SC Freiburg?
It is close: Monaco 39%, draw 22%, SC Freiburg 39%. Our prediction is Monaco 1-1 SC Freiburg.
Who is the player to watch in Monaco vs SC Freiburg?
Igor Matanovic of SC Freiburg: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Monaco vs SC Freiburg?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 74%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.