Napoli vs AS Roma Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 8
Serie A · Saturday 24 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Napoli welcome AS Roma to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Napoli in Serie A Gameweek 8 action on Saturday 24 October 2026.
Napoli have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 43% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 67% win rate. AS Roma have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.4 goals a game and winning 71% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Napoli 33%, the draw 28%, AS Roma 39%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Napoli +0.25 at 1.80, AS Roma at 2.11. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.93, under 1.96, which gives over 50%.
Napoli: form and key numbers
In style Napoli keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.85 a match created, 1.44 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 16.7 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 53.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.4 a match.
- Discipline: 0.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
AS Roma: form and key numbers
In style AS Roma keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.16 a match created, 1.05 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.8).
- Shots: 18.1 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 55.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 71% of matches (60% away).
- Both teams scored in 29% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.09.
Napoli vs AS Roma: season averages side by side
| Napoli | Per match | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| 1.85 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.16 |
| 1.44 | xG conceded | 1.05 |
| 1.43 | Goals | 2.29 |
| 16.7 | Shots | 18.1 |
| 5.6 | Shots on target | 6.0 |
| 1.9 | Big chances missed | 2.1 |
| 56.1 | Pressure share % | 61.1 |
| 15.0 | Tackles | 18.6 |
| 8.9 | Fouls | 12.0 |
| 0.9 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 7 measured matches.
Napoli vs AS Roma: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Napoli have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 0 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Napoli 5, AS Roma 3 - 2.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Napoli 2-2 AS Roma (February 15th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Napoli won 2, drew 2 and lost 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb 2026 | Napoli | 2 – 2 | AS Roma |
| 30 Nov 2025 | AS Roma | 0 – 1 | Napoli |
| 2 Feb 2025 | AS Roma | 1 – 1 | Napoli |
| 24 Nov 2024 | Napoli | 1 – 0 | AS Roma |
Players to watch
Napoli
- Amir Rrahmani CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 70 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Kevin De Bruyne AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 69 · Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
AS Roma
- Paulo Dybala SS · Link-up forward · Moneyball Score 71 · Chance creator, Creator (top 3% of his position)
- Wesley RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Chance creator, Crosser (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Donyell Malen
Donyell Malen, 27 · Roma · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 74
Donyell Malen, 27, plays as a centre-forward for Roma in Serie A. Strongest for his role in expected goals and goals. Weakest in aerial duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 74
- SS · Second striker Competent, 67
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 1.14 / 90 | 98% |
| Goals | 1.36 / 90 | 96% |
| Shots | 4.97 / 90 | 96% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.23 xG/shot | 90% |
| Key passes | 1.81 / 90 | 88% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Clinical finisher, High shot volume.
- What Donyell Malen is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Donyell Malen's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Napoli vs AS Roma prediction
AS Roma should have more of the ball; Napoli are a threat in the air and from set pieces; AS Roma work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.19 for Napoli and 1.59 for AS Roma - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 56%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Napoli 1-1 AS Roma
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Napoli vs AS Roma betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 39%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.78 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Serie A previews
- Udinese vs Lecce Sunday 18 October 2026
- Fiorentina vs Como Sunday 18 October 2026
- AC Milan vs Atalanta Sunday 18 October 2026
- Juventus vs Lazio Sunday 18 October 2026
- Monza vs Cagliari Monday 19 October 2026
- Parma Calcio vs Torino Monday 19 October 2026
Napoli vs AS Roma: questions and answers
When is Napoli vs AS Roma?
Napoli vs AS Roma is on Saturday 24 October 2026, in Serie A Gameweek 8.
Where is Napoli vs AS Roma played?
At Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli, Napoli's home ground.
Who will win Napoli vs AS Roma?
It is close: Napoli 33%, draw 28%, AS Roma 39%. Our prediction is Napoli 1-1 AS Roma.
Who is the player to watch in Napoli vs AS Roma?
Donyell Malen of Roma: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Napoli vs AS Roma?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.