Napoli vs Bodo Glimt Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3
UEFA Champions League · Tuesday 20 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Napoli welcome Bodo Glimt to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Napoli in UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Tuesday 20 October 2026.
Napoli have played 7 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 43% of them. At home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 67% win rate. Bodo Glimt have played 6 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Napoli are narrow favourites at 57%, with the draw at 22% and Bodo Glimt at 20%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Napoli -1 at 2.06, Bodo Glimt at 1.84. The main goals line is 3.25: over 2.03, under 1.85, which gives over 48%.
Napoli: form and key numbers
In style Napoli keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.85 a match created, 1.44 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.0).
- Shots: 16.7 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 53.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.4 a match.
- Discipline: 0.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
Bodo Glimt: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.7).
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 52.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Napoli vs Bodo Glimt: season averages side by side
| Napoli | Per match | Bodo Glimt |
|---|---|---|
| 1.85 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| 1.44 | xG conceded | – |
| 1.43 | Goals | 2.17 |
| 16.7 | Shots | 11.8 |
| 5.6 | Shots on target | 4.7 |
| 1.9 | Big chances missed | 2.0 |
| 56.1 | Pressure share % | – |
| 15.0 | Tackles | 18.8 |
| 8.9 | Fouls | 10.0 |
| 0.9 | Yellow cards | 1.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 6 measured matches.
Players to watch
Napoli
- Amir Rrahmani CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 70 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Alex Meret GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 60 · Long passer, Dominant in the air (top 23% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Kevin De Bruyne
Kevin De Bruyne, 35 · Napoli · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 69
Kevin De Bruyne, 35, plays as an attacking midfielder for Napoli in Serie A. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected goals. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 71
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 69
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 64
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 4.40 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.68 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.43 / 90 | 91% |
| Through balls | 0.23 / 90 | 87% |
| Dispossessed | 0.69 / 90 | 87% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creator Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions, Creator.
- What Kevin De Bruyne is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Kevin De Bruyne's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Napoli vs Bodo Glimt prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 2.05 for Napoli and 1.46 for Bodo Glimt - with over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 67%. Napoli have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Napoli 2-1 Bodo Glimt
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Napoli vs Bodo Glimt betting tips
- Tip 1: Napoli to win 57% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 68% by the model, 3.50 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 67% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Napoli vs Bodo Glimt in the Match Centre Follow it live
More UEFA Champions League previews
- Fenerbahce vs Slavia Praha Tuesday 20 October 2026
- Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund Tuesday 20 October 2026
- AS Roma vs Slovan Bratislava Tuesday 20 October 2026
- Porto vs PSV Eindhoven Tuesday 20 October 2026
- Liverpool vs Villarreal Tuesday 20 October 2026
- Manchester City vs AEK Athens Tuesday 20 October 2026
Napoli vs Bodo Glimt: questions and answers
When is Napoli vs Bodo Glimt?
Napoli vs Bodo Glimt is on Tuesday 20 October 2026, in UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is Napoli vs Bodo Glimt played?
At Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli, Napoli's home ground.
Who will win Napoli vs Bodo Glimt?
Napoli are the favourites: Napoli 57%, draw 22%, Bodo Glimt 20%. Our prediction is Napoli 2-1 Bodo Glimt.
Who is the player to watch in Napoli vs Bodo Glimt?
Kevin De Bruyne of Napoli: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Napoli vs Bodo Glimt?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.