NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 4
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Goffertstadion, Nijmegen · updated 2026-10-22
NEC Nijmegen welcome Omonia Nicosia to Goffertstadion in Nijmegen in Europa League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
NEC Nijmegen have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Omonia Nicosia have played 6 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Omonia Nicosia are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 29% and NEC Nijmegen at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 0.91, Omonia Nicosia 1.38.
- Over 2.5 goals: 40% · both teams to score: 46%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
NEC Nijmegen: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.36 a match created (goals minus xG: -2.4).
- Shots: 13.8 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 47.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Omonia Nicosia: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.86 a match created (goals minus xG: +4.9).
- Shots: 13.0 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 48.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia: season averages side by side
| NEC Nijmegen | Per match this season | Omonia Nicosia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 6 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 0.7 |
| 1.36 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.86 |
| 13.8 | Shots | 13.0 |
| 4.8 | On target | 4.7 |
| 47.3 | Possession % | 48.2 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 3.5 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
| 6.75 | Average rating | 6.81 |
NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 0.91 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.38 for Omonia Nicosia - with over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams scoring at 46%. Omonia Nicosia have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: NEC Nijmegen 0-1 Omonia Nicosia
NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia betting tips
- Tip 1: Omonia Nicosia win or draw (double chance) 76% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 2.29 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia: questions and answers
When is NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia?
NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 4.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia played?
At Goffertstadion, Nijmegen, NEC Nijmegen's home ground.
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia?
Omonia Nicosia are the favourites: NEC Nijmegen 24%, draw 29%, Omonia Nicosia 47%. Our prediction is NEC Nijmegen 0-1 Omonia Nicosia.
How many goals will there be in NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 40%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.