Netherlands vs Germany Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Nations League A · Friday 25 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-17
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Netherlands welcome Germany in UEFA Nations League A action on Friday 25 September 2026.
Netherlands have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Germany have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Netherlands 39%, the draw 26%, Germany 34%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Netherlands 0 at 1.71, Germany at 1.97. The main goals line is 3: over 1.76, under 1.90, which gives over 52%.
Netherlands vs Germany: season averages side by side
| Netherlands | Per match | Germany |
|---|---|---|
| 2.23 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.44 |
| 0.77 | xG conceded | 0.84 |
| 2.80 | Goals | 2.76 |
| 12.6 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 11.8 | Tackles | 14.2 |
| 10.3 | Fouls | 12.3 |
| 0.6 | Yellow cards | 1.1 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 32 and 28 measured matches.
Netherlands vs Germany prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Netherlands and 1.23 for Germany - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Netherlands 1-1 Germany
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Netherlands vs Germany betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 39%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. This match is one of the free picks of its schedule.
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Netherlands vs Germany: questions and answers
When is Netherlands vs Germany?
Netherlands vs Germany is on Friday 25 September 2026, in UEFA Nations League A.
Who will win Netherlands vs Germany?
It is close: Netherlands 39%, draw 26%, Germany 34%. Our prediction is Netherlands 1-1 Germany.
How many goals will there be in Netherlands vs Germany?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.