Netherlands vs Germany: Prediction, Odds and Preview
UEFA Nations League A · Friday 25 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-07
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Netherlands host Germany in the UEFA Nations League A on Friday 25 September 2026. The prices see little between them: Netherlands 39%, the draw 26%, Germany 34% once the bookmaker's margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Netherlands 0 at 1.71, Germany at 1.97. The main goals line is 3: over 1.76, under 1.90, which gives over 52%.
Form in numbers
- Germany create more: 2.44 expected goals a match against 2.23 for Netherlands.
- Netherlands give away less, 0.77 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Netherlands 12.6 (– on target), Germany 13.2 (– on target).
| Netherlands | Per match | Germany |
|---|---|---|
| 2.23 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.44 |
| 0.77 | xG conceded | 0.84 |
| 2.80 | Goals | 2.76 |
| 12.6 | Shots | 13.2 |
| 11.8 | Tackles | 14.2 |
| 10.3 | Fouls | 12.3 |
| 0.6 | Yellow cards | 1.1 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 32 and 28 measured matches.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. This match is one of the free picks of its schedule.
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