Newcastle United vs Everton Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 9
Premier League · Monday 2 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne · updated 2026-10-20
Newcastle United welcome Everton to St. James' Park in Newcastle upon Tyne in Premier League Gameweek 9 action on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Newcastle United have played 7 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. Everton have played 7 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 29% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Newcastle United 35%, the draw 27%, Everton 39%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Newcastle United 1.35, Everton 1.44.
- Over 2.5 goals: 53% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Newcastle United: form and key numbers
In style Newcastle United are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.25 a match created, 1.91 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.2).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 51.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Everton: form and key numbers
In style Everton are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.27 a match created, 1.39 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 47.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Newcastle United vs Everton: season averages side by side
| Newcastle United | Per match this season | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.25 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.27 |
| 1.91 | xG conceded | 1.39 |
| 12.3 | Shots | 14.4 |
| 3.6 | On target | 5.0 |
| 51.6 | Possession % | 47.1 |
| 14% | Clean sheets % | 43% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 43% |
| 4.6 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 2.7 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.74 | Average rating | 6.92 |
Players to watch
Newcastle United
- Sven Botman CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 67 · Dominant in the air, Disciplined (top 3% of his position)
- Lewis Hall LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 57 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 12% of his position)
Everton
- James Tarkowski CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 74 · Hard to dribble past, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 65 · Creator, Draws fouls (top 14% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Thierno Barry
Thierno Barry, 23 · Everton · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 68
Thierno Barry, 23, plays as a centre-forward for Everton in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and shots. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 68
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 4.69 / 90 | 97% |
| Shots | 3.78 / 90 | 90% |
| Duels won | 6.81 / 90 | 89% |
| Expected goals | 0.59 / 90 | 81% |
| Goals | 0.45 / 90 | 60% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, High shot volume, Duel winner.
- What Thierno Barry is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Thierno Barry's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Newcastle United vs Everton prediction
Newcastle United should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.35 for Newcastle United and 1.44 for Everton - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 57%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Newcastle United 1-1 Everton
Newcastle United vs Everton betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 39%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.78 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Newcastle United vs Everton: questions and answers
When is Newcastle United vs Everton?
Newcastle United vs Everton is on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 9.
Where is Newcastle United vs Everton played?
At St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne, Newcastle United's home ground.
Who will win Newcastle United vs Everton?
It is close: Newcastle United 35%, draw 27%, Everton 39%. Our prediction is Newcastle United 1-1 Everton.
Who is the player to watch in Newcastle United vs Everton?
Thierno Barry of Everton: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 68 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Newcastle United vs Everton?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.