Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 2
Europa Conference League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · Right to Dream Park, Farum · updated 2026-10-17
Nordsjælland welcome CSKA Sofia to Right to Dream Park in Farum in Europa Conference League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC.
Nordsjælland have played 7 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 2.6 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 71% of them. At home they average 4.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 60% win rate. CSKA Sofia have played 8 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 38% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Nordsjælland are clear favourites at 77%, with the draw at 16% and CSKA Sofia at 6%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Nordsjælland 2.29, CSKA Sofia 0.52.
- Over 2.5 goals: 53% · both teams to score: 37%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (16%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Nordsjælland: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.20 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.6).
- Shots: 18.1 a match, 6.1 on target.
- Possession: 59.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 57% of matches (75% at home).
- Both teams scored in 29% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.05.
CSKA Sofia: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.22 a match created (goals minus xG: +7.2).
- Shots: 11.5 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 50.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 38% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.9 a match.
- Discipline: 3.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.41.
Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia: season averages side by side
| Nordsjælland | Per match this season | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 8 |
| 2.6 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 0.6 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 2.20 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.22 |
| 18.1 | Shots | 11.5 |
| 6.1 | On target | 4.1 |
| 59.4 | Possession % | 50.0 |
| 57% | Clean sheets % | 38% |
| 29% | Both teams scored % | 38% |
| 6.0 | Corners | 3.9 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 3.3 |
| 7.05 | Average rating | 6.41 |
Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 2.29 for Nordsjælland and 0.52 for CSKA Sofia - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 37%. Nordsjælland have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Nordsjælland 2-0 CSKA Sofia
Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia betting tips
- Tip 1: Nordsjælland to win 77% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.80 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: no 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia: questions and answers
When is Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia?
Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia is on Thursday 22 October 2026, kick-off 16:45 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 2.
Where is Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia played?
At Right to Dream Park, Farum, Nordsjælland's home ground.
Who will win Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia?
Nordsjælland are the favourites: Nordsjælland 77%, draw 16%, CSKA Sofia 6%. Our prediction is Nordsjælland 2-0 CSKA Sofia.
How many goals will there be in Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.