Norway vs Denmark Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Nations League A · Friday 25 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-17
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Norway welcome Denmark in UEFA Nations League A action on Friday 25 September 2026.
Norway have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Denmark have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Norway are narrow favourites at 52%, with the draw at 26% and Denmark at 22%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.4% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Norway -0.5 at 1.65, Denmark at 2.03. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.90, under 1.76, which gives over 48%.
Norway vs Denmark: season averages side by side
| Norway | Per match | Denmark |
|---|---|---|
| 2.77 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.09 |
| 0.90 | xG conceded | 1.10 |
| 3.08 | Goals | 2.88 |
| 13.5 | Shots | 17.6 |
| 13.1 | Tackles | 19.5 |
| 9.2 | Fouls | 10.5 |
| 0.7 | Yellow cards | 0.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 36 and 10 measured matches.
Norway vs Denmark prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Norway and 1.23 for Denmark - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Norway have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Norway 1-0 Denmark
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Norway vs Denmark betting tips
- Tip 1: Norway win or draw (double chance) 78% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. This match is one of the free picks of its schedule.
Norway vs Denmark: questions and answers
When is Norway vs Denmark?
Norway vs Denmark is on Friday 25 September 2026, in UEFA Nations League A.
Who will win Norway vs Denmark?
Norway are the favourites: Norway 52%, draw 26%, Denmark 22%. Our prediction is Norway 1-0 Denmark.
How many goals will there be in Norway vs Denmark?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.