Norway vs Denmark: Prediction, Odds and Preview
UEFA Nations League A · Friday 25 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-07
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Norway host Denmark in the UEFA Nations League A on Friday 25 September 2026. The bookmakers make Norway narrow favourites at 52%, with the draw at 26% and Denmark at 22%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.4% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Norway -0.5 at 1.65, Denmark at 2.03. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.90, under 1.76, which gives over 48%.
Form in numbers
- Denmark create more: 3.09 expected goals a match against 2.77 for Norway.
- Norway give away less, 0.90 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Norway 13.5 (– on target), Denmark 17.6 (– on target).
| Norway | Per match | Denmark |
|---|---|---|
| 2.77 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.09 |
| 0.90 | xG conceded | 1.10 |
| 3.08 | Goals | 2.88 |
| 13.5 | Shots | 17.6 |
| 13.1 | Tackles | 19.5 |
| 9.2 | Fouls | 10.5 |
| 0.7 | Yellow cards | 0.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 36 and 10 measured matches.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. This match is one of the free picks of its schedule.
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.