Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 10
Premier League · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 17:30 UTC · The City Ground, Nottingham · updated 2026-10-24
Nottingham Forest welcome Manchester City to The City Ground in Nottingham in Premier League Gameweek 10 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
Nottingham Forest have played 8 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 13% of them. At home they average 0.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate. Manchester City have played 7 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 2.7 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 100% of them. Away from home they average 2.7 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 43% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Manchester City are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 26% and Nottingham Forest at 27%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Nottingham Forest 1.20, Manchester City 1.66.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Nottingham Forest: form and key numbers
In style Nottingham Forest are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.70 a match created, 1.20 conceded (goals minus xG: -7.6).
- Shots: 17.1 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 46.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Manchester City: form and key numbers
In style Manchester City keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.04 a match created, 1.17 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.8).
- Shots: 14.6 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 64.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.04.
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City: season averages side by side
| Nottingham Forest | Per match this season | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 7 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 2.7 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.70 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.04 |
| 1.20 | xG conceded | 1.17 |
| 17.1 | Shots | 14.6 |
| 3.8 | On target | 5.3 |
| 46.3 | Possession % | 64.4 |
| 13% | Clean sheets % | 43% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 57% |
| 4.8 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 2.1 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.85 | Average rating | 7.04 |
Players to watch
Nottingham Forest
- Morgan Gibbs-White AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 66 · Creator, Big-chance creator (top 3% of his position)
- Ola Aina RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 63 · Dribbler, Duel winner (top 2% of his position)
Manchester City
- Phil Foden AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 77 · Gets into scoring positions, Creator (top 3% of his position)
- Josko Gvardiol LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 72 · Duel winner, Dribbler (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Rayan Cherki
Rayan Cherki, 23 · Manchester City · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 77
Rayan Cherki, 23, plays as an attacking midfielder for Manchester City in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in pass accuracy and expected assists (est.). Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 77
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 72
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 72
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Pass accuracy | 92% | 94% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.40 / 90 | 90% |
| Key passes | 3.18 / 90 | 87% |
| Big chances created | 0.68 / 90 | 86% |
| Expected goals | 0.38 / 90 | 83% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Secure passer, Creator, Chance creator.
- What Rayan Cherki is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Rayan Cherki's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City prediction
Manchester City should have more of the ball, with Nottingham Forest likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Nottingham Forest are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Manchester City work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.20 for Nottingham Forest and 1.66 for Manchester City - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 57%. Manchester City have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-2 Manchester City
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City betting tips
- Tip 1: Manchester City win or draw (double chance) 73% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.86 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (55%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City: questions and answers
When is Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City?
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 10.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City played?
At The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottingham Forest's home ground.
Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City?
Manchester City are the favourites: Nottingham Forest 27%, draw 26%, Manchester City 47%. Our prediction is Nottingham Forest 1-2 Manchester City.
Who is the player to watch in Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City?
Rayan Cherki of Manchester City: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 77 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.