Nottingham Forest 3–1 Manchester City: Result, Report and Stats
Premier League · Sunday 8 November 2026 · played · updated 2026-11-13
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Result: Nottingham Forest 3 – 1 Manchester City
- Before kick-off the pre-match consensus gave Nottingham Forest win 21%. The consensus had leaned to a Manchester City win (54%); the result went against it.
- 4 goals in the match.
Every prediction on this page was published before kick-off and is left as it was. Moneyball's own model reading of this match, and how it compared with the result, is in Match Live.
Nottingham Forest welcome Manchester City to The City Ground in Nottingham in Premier League action on Sunday 8 November 2026.
Nottingham Forest have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. Manchester City have played 10 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 70% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 43% win rate.
On the pre-match consensus, Manchester City are narrow favourites at 54%, with the draw at 24% and Nottingham Forest at 21%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 2.75 goals: 53%.
Nottingham Forest: form and key numbers
In style Nottingham Forest are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.59 a match created, 1.19 conceded (goals minus xG: -6.9).
- Shots: 16.3 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 45.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 10% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Manchester City: form and key numbers
In style Manchester City keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.97 a match created, 1.09 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.3).
- Shots: 15.0 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 65.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City: season averages side by side
| Nottingham Forest | Per match | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| 1.59 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.97 |
| 1.19 | xG conceded | 1.09 |
| 0.90 | Goals | 2.10 |
| 16.3 | Shots | 15.0 |
| 3.6 | Shots on target | 5.4 |
| 2.0 | Big chances missed | 2.5 |
| 53.1 | Pressure share % | 72.9 |
| 18.6 | Tackles | 13.2 |
| 14.0 | Fouls | 10.8 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 10 and 10 measured matches.
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Nottingham Forest have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of the last 5 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Nottingham Forest 7, Manchester City 8 - 3.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Nottingham Forest 3-1 Manchester City (November 7th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 5 meetings Nottingham Forest won 2, drew 1 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2026 | Nottingham Forest | 3 – 1 | Manchester City |
| 4 Mar 2026 | Manchester City | 2 – 2 | Nottingham Forest |
| 27 Dec 2025 | Nottingham Forest | 1 – 2 | Manchester City |
| 8 Mar 2025 | Nottingham Forest | 1 – 0 | Manchester City |
| 4 Dec 2024 | Manchester City | 3 – 0 | Nottingham Forest |
Players to watch
Nottingham Forest
- Morgan Gibbs-White AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 69 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 3% of his position)
- Ola Aina RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Duel winner, Dribbler (top 5% of his position)
Manchester City
- Phil Foden AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 73 · Gets into scoring positions, Big-chance creator (top 3% of his position)
- Erling Haaland CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 72 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 3% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Jérémy Doku
Jérémy Doku, 24 · Manchester City · LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 87
Jérémy Doku, 24, plays as a winger for Manchester City in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and big chances created. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 87
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 84
- LM · Wide midfielder Natural, 83
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 6.14 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 1.14 / 90 | 99% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.49 / 90 | 97% |
| Fouls won | 2.95 / 90 | 97% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.36 / 90 | 95% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★★ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Big-chance creator, Creator.
- What Jérémy Doku is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Jérémy Doku's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City prediction
Manchester City should have more of the ball, with Nottingham Forest likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Nottingham Forest are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Manchester City work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.28 for Nottingham Forest and 1.57 for Manchester City - with over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 58%. Manchester City have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-2 Manchester City
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City: what the numbers say
- 1. Manchester City unbeaten (win or draw) 79% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.85 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (54%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.7 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 10.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City: questions and answers
When is Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City?
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City is on Sunday 8 November 2026, in the Premier League.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City played?
At The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottingham Forest's home ground.
Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City?
Manchester City are the favourites: Nottingham Forest 21%, draw 24%, Manchester City 54%. Our prediction is Nottingham Forest 1-2 Manchester City.
Who is the player to watch in Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City?
Jérémy Doku of Manchester City: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 87 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.