OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3
UEFA Europa League · Thursday 22 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
OFI Crete welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis in Heraklion in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 22 October 2026.
OFI Crete have played 4 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 75% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate. Bayer Leverkusen have played 5 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 2.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Bayer Leverkusen are clear favourites at 72%, with the draw at 16% and OFI Crete at 12%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.6% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is OFI Crete +1.75 at 1.99, Bayer Leverkusen at 1.89. The main goals line is 3.5: over 1.97, under 1.89, which gives over 49%.
OFI Crete: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.70 a match created (goals minus xG: +5.2).
- Shots: 8.3 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 38.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 75% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 25% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Bayer Leverkusen: form and key numbers
In style Bayer Leverkusen keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.40 a match created, 1.25 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.0).
- Shots: 21.2 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 59.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen: season averages side by side
| OFI Crete | Per match | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| 0.70 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.40 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.25 |
| 2.00 | Goals | 2.80 |
| 8.3 | Shots | 21.2 |
| 3.8 | Shots on target | 6.4 |
| 1.0 | Big chances missed | 2.6 |
| – | Pressure share % | 66.7 |
| 11.5 | Tackles | 14.0 |
| 9.5 | Fouls | 12.4 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 4 and 5 measured matches.
Players to watch
Bayer Leverkusen
- Aleix García CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 76 · Ball circulator, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Ibrahim Maza AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 65 · High shot volume, Dribbler (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Patrik Schick
Patrik Schick, 30 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 69
Patrik Schick, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in goals and shots. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 69
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 / 90 | 94% |
| Shots | 4.71 / 90 | 93% |
| Expected goals | 0.84 / 90 | 91% |
| Key passes | 1.57 / 90 | 77% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 xG/shot | 69% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Patrik Schick is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Patrik Schick's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.53 for OFI Crete and 1.27 for Bayer Leverkusen - with over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams scoring at 57%. Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: OFI Crete 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen betting tips
- Tip 1: Bayer Leverkusen to win 72% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.80 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (53%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen in the Match Centre Follow it live
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OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen: questions and answers
When is OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen?
OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen is on Thursday 22 October 2026, in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 3.
Where is OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen played?
At Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Heraklion, OFI Crete's home ground.
Who will win OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen are the favourites: OFI Crete 12%, draw 16%, Bayer Leverkusen 72%. Our prediction is OFI Crete 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who is the player to watch in OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Patrik Schick of Bayer 04 Leverkusen: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.