Osasuna 1–1 Athletic Bilbao: Result, Report and Stats
La Liga · Sunday 8 November 2026 · played · updated 2026-11-13
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Result: Osasuna 1 – 1 Athletic Bilbao
- Before kick-off the pre-match consensus gave the draw 28%. The consensus had leaned to an Athletic Bilbao win (46%); the result went against it.
- 2 goals in the match.
Every prediction on this page was published before kick-off and is left as it was. Moneyball's own model reading of this match, and how it compared with the result, is in Match Live.
Osasuna welcome Athletic Bilbao to Estadio El Sadar in Pamplona in La Liga action on Sunday 8 November 2026.
Osasuna have played 12 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 0.8 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 67% win rate. Athletic Bilbao have played 11 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 36% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On the pre-match consensus, Athletic Bilbao are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 28% and Osasuna at 26%.
Win probabilities
The pre-match consensus: the chance of a home win, a draw and an away win. More than 2.25 goals: 51%.
Osasuna: form and key numbers
In style Osasuna are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.37 a match created, 1.55 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.4).
- Shots: 11.3 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 45.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Athletic Bilbao: form and key numbers
In style Athletic Bilbao keep the ball, press high, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.0).
- Shots: 14.9 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 54.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 45% of matches (40% away).
- Both teams scored in 45% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao: season averages side by side
| Osasuna | Per match | Athletic Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| 1.37 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| 1.55 | xG conceded | 1.23 |
| 1.00 | Goals | 1.36 |
| 11.3 | Shots | 14.9 |
| 4.0 | Shots on target | 4.1 |
| 0.9 | Big chances missed | 1.2 |
| 39.8 | Pressure share % | 59.8 |
| 16.8 | Tackles | 14.2 |
| 14.3 | Fouls | 11.4 |
| 2.8 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 12 and 11 measured matches.
Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Osasuna have won 0, drawn 3 and lost 2 of the last 5 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Osasuna 3, Athletic Bilbao 5 - 1.6 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Osasuna 1-1 Athletic Bilbao (November 7th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 5 meetings Osasuna won 0, drew 3 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov 2026 | Osasuna | 1 – 1 | Athletic Bilbao |
| 21 Apr 2026 | Athletic Bilbao | 1 – 0 | Osasuna |
| 3 Jan 2026 | Osasuna | 1 – 1 | Athletic Bilbao |
| 30 Mar 2025 | Athletic Bilbao | 0 – 0 | Osasuna |
| 21 Dec 2024 | Osasuna | 1 – 2 | Athletic Bilbao |
Players to watch
Osasuna
- Valentin Rosier RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 58 · Dribbler, Reads the game (top 14% of his position)
- Alejandro Catena CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 54 · Hard to dribble past, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
Athletic Bilbao
- Nico Williams LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 69 · Gets into scoring positions, Press-resistant (top 11% of his position)
- Álex Berenguer LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 66 · Gets into scoring positions, Chance creator (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ante Budimir
Ante Budimir, 35 · Osasuna · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 79
Ante Budimir, 35, plays as a centre-forward for Osasuna in La Liga. Strongest for his role in duels won and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 79
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 68
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 7.65 / 90 | 96% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.21 xG/shot | 94% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.87 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected goals | 0.65 / 90 | 86% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.68 / 90 | 86% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air.
- What Ante Budimir is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ante Budimir's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao prediction
Athletic Bilbao should have more of the ball, with Osasuna likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Osasuna work the ball wide and cross; Athletic Bilbao press high to win the ball back. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.14 for Osasuna and 1.58 for Athletic Bilbao - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Athletic Bilbao have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Osasuna 1-2 Athletic Bilbao
Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao: what the numbers say
- 1. Athletic Bilbao unbeaten (win or draw) 74% between them
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.73 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.7 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 9.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
Moneyball's reading
The Dixon-Coles and xG model reads every match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, the most likely scores and the goals probabilities. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao: questions and answers
When is Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao?
Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao is on Sunday 8 November 2026, in La Liga.
Where is Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao played?
At Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona, Osasuna's home ground.
Who will win Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao?
Athletic Bilbao are the favourites: Osasuna 26%, draw 28%, Athletic Bilbao 46%. Our prediction is Osasuna 1-2 Athletic Bilbao.
Who is the player to watch in Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao?
Ante Budimir of Osasuna: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 79 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Osasuna vs Athletic Bilbao?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.