Osasuna vs Athletic Club Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 12
La Liga · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 17:30 UTC · Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona · updated 2026-10-24
Osasuna welcome Athletic Club to Estadio El Sadar in Pamplona in La Liga Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
Osasuna have played 9 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 67% win rate. Athletic Club have played 8 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Osasuna 36%, the draw 28%, Athletic Club 37%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Osasuna 1.32, Athletic Club 1.34.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (13%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Osasuna: form and key numbers
In style Osasuna are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.40 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.7).
- Shots: 10.8 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 45.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 44% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.66.
Athletic Club: form and key numbers
In style Athletic Club keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.57 a match created, 1.32 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.5).
- Shots: 15.5 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 54.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 38% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Osasuna vs Athletic Club: season averages side by side
| Osasuna | Per match this season | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 8 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.57 |
| 1.40 | xG conceded | 1.32 |
| 10.8 | Shots | 15.5 |
| 4.3 | On target | 4.3 |
| 45.7 | Possession % | 54.9 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 44% | Both teams scored % | 38% |
| 3.6 | Corners | 6.5 |
| 2.7 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.66 | Average rating | 6.83 |
Players to watch
Osasuna
- Rubén García RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 55 · Press-resistant, Chance creator (top 6% of his position)
- Alejandro Catena CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 50 · Hard to dribble past, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
Athletic Club
- Yuri Berchiche LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 72 · Ball circulator, Chance creator (top 3% of his position)
- Álex Berenguer LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 65 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ante Budimir
Ante Budimir, 35 · Osasuna · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 81
Ante Budimir, 35, plays as a centre-forward for Osasuna in La Liga. Strongest for his role in duels won and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 81
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 8.31 / 90 | 99% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.24 xG/shot | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.77 / 90 | 94% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.83 / 90 | 93% |
| Shots on target | 58% | 91% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Ante Budimir is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ante Budimir's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Osasuna vs Athletic Club prediction
Athletic Club should have more of the ball, with Osasuna likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Osasuna go long and direct; Athletic Club work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.32 for Osasuna and 1.34 for Athletic Club - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 55%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Osasuna 1-1 Athletic Club
Osasuna vs Athletic Club betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 37%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.65 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 10.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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- Real Sociedad vs Levante Sunday 25 October 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Real Madrid Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sevilla vs Osasuna Monday 26 October 2026
- Villarreal vs Espanyol Friday 30 October 2026
- Levante vs Atlético de Madrid Saturday 31 October 2026
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Osasuna vs Athletic Club: questions and answers
When is Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Osasuna vs Athletic Club is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 12.
Where is Osasuna vs Athletic Club played?
At Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona, Osasuna's home ground.
Who will win Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
It is close: Osasuna 36%, draw 28%, Athletic Club 37%. Our prediction is Osasuna 1-1 Athletic Club.
Who is the player to watch in Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Ante Budimir of Osasuna: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 81 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Osasuna vs Athletic Club?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.