Paderborn 0-2 VfB Stuttgart: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How VfB Stuttgart won it

VfB Stuttgart struck first through Jeff Chabot in the 25th minute, set up by Angelo Stiller. Chris Führich made it 0-2 to VfB Stuttgart in the 83rd minute, set up by Angelo Stiller.

It was 0-1 at half-time.

The referee, F. Zwayer, showed 1 yellow card: 1 to Paderborn and 0 to VfB Stuttgart.

Paderborn: R. Kettemann, 3-5-2 · VfB Stuttgart: S. Hoeneß, 3-4-2-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

This one went against the numbers. The estimate made a Paderborn win the likeliest outcome (41%), and a VfB Stuttgart win, at 33%, is what happened.

On goals the estimate was close: about 3.0 expected, 2 scored.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 58%; with 2 goals the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 61%; they did not both score, against the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 2.16 for Paderborn and 1.78 for VfB Stuttgart.

Paderborn scored about 2.2 fewer than their chances were worth: poor finishing, or a goalkeeper at his best.

Paderborn had 6 shots on target, VfB Stuttgart 8.

Paderborn's goalkeeper made 5 saves.

Paderborn had 52% of the ball, but VfB Stuttgart took the points.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Paderborn came into it with 6 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.5 a match, with 1.06 expected goals for and 1.66 against, and had won 17% of their matches.

VfB Stuttgart came into it with 6 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 a match, with 1.94 expected goals for and 2.08 against, and had won 33% of their matches.

Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Angelo Stiller (VfB Stuttgart), rated 8.6 by Sportmonks, with 2 assists.

Paderborn

• Gabriel Vidovic 7.6
• Tjark Scheller 7.3
• Laurin Curda 7.3
• Steffen Tigges 7.3
• Raphael Obermair 7.2

VfB Stuttgart

• Angelo Stiller 8.6 2 assists
• Maximilian Mittelstädt 8.3
• Chris Führich 7.6 1 goal
• Jeff Chabot 7.6 1 goal
• Deniz Undav 7.6

The lowest-rated starter was Jamie Leweling at 6.3. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Paderborn: Paderborn vs Hamburger SV Saturday 24 October 2026 · Bundesliga
• VfB Stuttgart: VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético de Madrid Tuesday 20 October 2026 · Champions League

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart

What was the score in Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart?

Paderborn 0-2 VfB Stuttgart (half-time 0-1), Bundesliga, Saturday 10 October 2026.

Who scored in Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart?

Jeff Chabot 25', Chris Führich 83'.

Did Moneyball predict Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart correctly?

This one went against the numbers. The estimate made a Paderborn win the likeliest outcome (41%), and a VfB Stuttgart win, at 33%, is what happened.

Who was man of the match in Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart?

Angelo Stiller, rated 8.6 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart?

F. Zwayer.