Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa Conference League Gameweek 3
Europa Conference League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Athens · updated 2026-10-22
Panathinaikos welcome CSKA Sofia to Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis in Athens in Europa Conference League Gameweek 3 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Panathinaikos have played 7 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 57% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 25% win rate. CSKA Sofia have played 8 matches in the Europa Conference League this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 38% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Panathinaikos are clear favourites at 62%, with the draw at 23% and CSKA Sofia at 15%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Panathinaikos 1.86, CSKA Sofia 0.80.
- Over 2.5 goals: 50% · both teams to score: 47%.
- Most likely score: 1–0 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Panathinaikos: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.74 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.8).
- Shots: 18.6 a match, 7.6 on target.
- Possession: 53.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
CSKA Sofia: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.22 a match created (goals minus xG: +7.2).
- Shots: 11.5 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 50.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 38% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.9 a match.
- Discipline: 3.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.41.
Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia: season averages side by side
| Panathinaikos | Per match this season | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 8 |
| 1.9 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 1.74 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.22 |
| 18.6 | Shots | 11.5 |
| 7.6 | On target | 4.1 |
| 53.4 | Possession % | 50.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 38% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 38% |
| 7.3 | Corners | 3.9 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 3.3 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.41 |
Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.86 for Panathinaikos and 0.80 for CSKA Sofia - with over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 47%. Panathinaikos have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Panathinaikos 1-0 CSKA Sofia
Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia betting tips
- Tip 1: Panathinaikos to win 62% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.66 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (50%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia: questions and answers
When is Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia?
Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa Conference League Gameweek 3.
Where is Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia played?
At Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Athens, Panathinaikos's home ground.
Who will win Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia?
Panathinaikos are the favourites: Panathinaikos 62%, draw 23%, CSKA Sofia 15%. Our prediction is Panathinaikos 1-0 CSKA Sofia.
How many goals will there be in Panathinaikos vs CSKA Sofia?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.