Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Le Mans: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Ligue 1 Matchday 6 · Saturday 10 October 2026 · Parc des Princes, Paris · referee M. Vernice · full time
Full time: Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Le Mans
Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Le Mans: Paris Saint Germain took the points in Ligue 1 Matchday 6 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Parc des Princes. The goals: Lucas Beraldo 19', Louis Mafouta 54', Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 61', Maghnes Akliouche 68'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How Paris Saint Germain won it
Lucas Beraldo put Paris Saint Germain ahead in the 19th minute from the penalty spot. Le Mans levelled at 1-1 in the 54th minute through Louis Mafouta, set up by Lucas Calodat. Khvicha Kvaratskhelia made it 2-1 to Paris Saint Germain in the 61st minute. Maghnes Akliouche made it 3-1 to Paris Saint Germain in the 68th minute, set up by Warren Zaïre-Emery.
It was 1-0 at half-time.
The referee, M. Vernice, showed 5 yellow cards: 0 to Paris Saint Germain and 5 to Le Mans. Désiré Doué missed a penalty for Paris Saint Germain in the 90 minute.
Paris Saint Germain: L. Martínez García, 4-3-3 · Le Mans: P. Videira, 3-1-4-2.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
A Paris Saint Germain win was the estimate's call at 54%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 1-1 was the likeliest, 3-1 the real one.
On goals the estimate was close: about 3.4 expected, 4 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 66%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 65%; both did, in line with the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 1.44 for Paris Saint Germain and 3.83 for Le Mans.
Paris Saint Germain scored about 1.6 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
Le Mans left about 2.8 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.
Le Mans created the better chances, 3.83 xG to 1.44, and still lost. On chances alone, the result could easily have gone the other way.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected Paris Saint Germain to create more, and Le Mans did.
Paris Saint Germain had 8 shots on target, Le Mans 3.
Le Mans's goalkeeper made 5 saves.
Paris Saint Germain had 73% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Paris Saint Germain came into it with 6 Ligue 1 matches played, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 2.43 expected goals for and 1.09 against, and had won 50% of their matches.
Le Mans came into it with 7 Ligue 1 matches played, scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.1 a match, with 1.57 expected goals for and 2.04 against, and had won 14% of their matches.
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans: the match in numbers
| Paris Saint Germain | Match statistics | Le Mans |
|---|---|---|
| 73% | Ball possession | 27% |
| 1.44 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.83 |
| 22 | Total shots | 11 |
| 8 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 5 | Big chances | 4 |
| 709 | Total passes | 256 |
| 88% | Pass accuracy | 71% |
| 4 | Corners | 4 |
| 3 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Offsides | 5 |
| 11 | Tackles | 12 |
| 2 | Saves | 5 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Lucas Digne (Paris Saint Germain), rated 7.8 by Sportmonks.
Paris Saint Germain
- Lucas Digne 7.8
- Maghnes Akliouche 7.6 1 goal
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 7.5 1 goal
- Lucas Hernández 7.4
- Lucas Beraldo 7.3 1 goal
Le Mans
- Lucas Calodat 6.9 1 assist
- Habib Diallo 6.9
- Nicolas Kocik 6.8
- William Harhouz 6.8
- Billal Brahimi 6.8
The lowest-rated starter was Rayan Bamba at 5.9. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Paris Saint Germain: Strasbourg vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 17 October 2026 · Ligue 1
- Le Mans: Auxerre vs Le Mans Sunday 25 October 2026 · Ligue 1
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans
What was the score in Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans?
Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Le Mans (half-time 1-0), Ligue 1, Saturday 10 October 2026.
Who scored in Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans?
Lucas Beraldo 19', Louis Mafouta 54', Khvicha Kvaratskhelia 61', Maghnes Akliouche 68'.
Did Moneyball predict Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans correctly?
A Paris Saint Germain win was the estimate's call at 54%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 1-1 was the likeliest, 3-1 the real one.
Who was man of the match in Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans?
Lucas Digne, rated 7.8 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Paris Saint Germain vs Le Mans?
M. Vernice.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball Odds writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over.