Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon Prediction and Betting Tips
Ligue 1 · Monday 26 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Paris Saint Germain welcome Lyon to Parc des Princes in Paris in Ligue 1 action on Monday 26 October 2026.
Paris Saint Germain have played 7 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 57% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 25% win rate. Lyon have played 6 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Paris Saint Germain are clear favourites at 66%, with the draw at 18% and Lyon at 16%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.8% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Paris Saint Germain -1.5 at 2.00, Lyon at 1.90. The main goals line is 3.5: over 1.93, under 1.95, which gives over 50%.
Paris Saint Germain: form and key numbers
In style Paris Saint Germain keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 2.50 a match created, 1.21 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.5).
- Shots: 20.9 a match, 7.3 on target.
- Possession: 68.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 86% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.02.
Lyon: form and key numbers
In style Lyon play long and direct, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.80 a match created, 1.08 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.2).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 52.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.92.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: season averages side by side
| Paris Saint Germain | Per match | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| 2.50 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.80 |
| 1.21 | xG conceded | 1.08 |
| 2.00 | Goals | 1.83 |
| 20.9 | Shots | 13.3 |
| 7.3 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 3.6 | Big chances missed | 2.0 |
| 79.5 | Pressure share % | 52.3 |
| 15.0 | Tackles | 15.0 |
| 5.9 | Fouls | 11.8 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 6 measured matches.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Paris Saint Germain have won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Paris Saint Germain 10, Lyon 7 - 4.3 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Lyon (April 19th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Paris Saint Germain won 3, drew 0 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr 2026 | Paris Saint Germain | 1 – 2 | Lyon |
| 9 Nov 2025 | Lyon | 2 – 3 | Paris Saint Germain |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Lyon | 2 – 3 | Paris Saint Germain |
| 15 Dec 2024 | Paris Saint Germain | 3 – 1 | Lyon |
Players to watch
Paris Saint Germain
- Fabián Ruiz CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 73 · Creator, Press-resistant (top 3% of his position)
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 66 · Chance creator, Dribbler (top 11% of his position)
Lyon
- Dominik Greif GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 73 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 4% of his position)
- Ernest Nuamah RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 65 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Désiré Doué
Désiré Doué, 21 · Paris Saint Germain · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 73
Désiré Doué, 21, plays as a winger for Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 74
- RW · Winger Natural, 73
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 69
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 5.06 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected goals | 0.62 / 90 | 96% |
| Successful dribbles | 3.29 / 90 | 89% |
| Key passes | 2.53 / 90 | 83% |
| Fouls won | 2.53 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Dribbler.
- What Désiré Doué is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Désiré Doué's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon prediction
Paris Saint Germain should have more of the ball; Paris Saint Germain like to take players on; Lyon go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.64 for Paris Saint Germain and 1.38 for Lyon - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 61%. Paris Saint Germain have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Lyon
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon betting tips
- Tip 1: Paris Saint Germain to win 66% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 3.02 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 10.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon: questions and answers
When is Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon is on Monday 26 October 2026, in Ligue 1.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon played?
At Parc des Princes, Paris, Paris Saint Germain's home ground.
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
Paris Saint Germain are the favourites: Paris Saint Germain 66%, draw 18%, Lyon 16%. Our prediction is Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Lyon.
Who is the player to watch in Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
Désiré Doué of Paris Saint Germain: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
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