Paris Saint Germain vs Troyes Prediction and Betting Tips | Ligue 1 Gameweek 10
Ligue 1 · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Parc des Princes, Paris · updated 2026-10-24
Paris Saint Germain welcome Troyes to Parc des Princes in Paris in Ligue 1 Gameweek 10 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Paris Saint Germain have played 7 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 57% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 25% win rate. Troyes have played 7 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 14% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Paris Saint Germain are clear favourites at 72%, with the draw at 17% and Troyes at 11%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Paris Saint Germain 2.60, Troyes 0.97.
- Over 2.5 goals: 69% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Paris Saint Germain: form and key numbers
In style Paris Saint Germain keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 2.50 a match created, 1.21 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.5).
- Shots: 20.9 a match, 7.3 on target.
- Possession: 68.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 86% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.02.
Troyes: form and key numbers
In style Troyes are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.35 a match created, 1.68 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.5).
- Shots: 14.4 a match, 3.1 on target.
- Possession: 39.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Paris Saint Germain vs Troyes: season averages side by side
| Paris Saint Germain | Per match this season | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 0.7 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 2.50 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.35 |
| 1.21 | xG conceded | 1.68 |
| 20.9 | Shots | 14.4 |
| 7.3 | On target | 3.1 |
| 68.0 | Possession % | 39.1 |
| 14% | Clean sheets % | 14% |
| 86% | Both teams scored % | 43% |
| 5.7 | Corners | 7.1 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 7.02 | Average rating | 6.70 |
Players to watch
Paris Saint Germain
- Fabián Ruiz CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 73 · Creator, Press-resistant (top 3% of his position)
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 66 · Chance creator, High shot volume (top 10% of his position)
Troyes
- Anis Ouzenadji LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Dribbler, Duel winner (top 17% of his position)
- Lucas Maronnier RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Hard to dribble past, Crosser (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Désiré Doué
Désiré Doué, 21 · Paris Saint Germain · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 74
Désiré Doué, 21, plays as a winger for Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 74
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 71
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 70
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 5.06 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected goals | 0.57 / 90 | 94% |
| Successful dribbles | 3.29 / 90 | 89% |
| Key passes | 2.53 / 90 | 83% |
| Fouls won | 2.53 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Dribbler.
- What Désiré Doué is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Désiré Doué's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Paris Saint Germain vs Troyes prediction
Paris Saint Germain should have more of the ball, with Troyes likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Paris Saint Germain like to take players on; Troyes work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 2.60 for Paris Saint Germain and 0.97 for Troyes - with over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams scoring at 58%. Paris Saint Germain have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Paris Saint Germain 2-0 Troyes
Paris Saint Germain vs Troyes betting tips
- Tip 1: Paris Saint Germain to win 72% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 69% by the model, 3.58 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Lens vs Paris Saturday 24 October 2026
- Toulouse vs Troyes Sunday 25 October 2026
- Rennes vs Strasbourg Sunday 25 October 2026
- Olympique Marseille vs Le Havre Sunday 25 October 2026
- Auxerre vs Le Mans Sunday 25 October 2026
- Angers SCO vs Lorient Sunday 25 October 2026
- Paris Saint Germain vs Olympique Lyonnais Sunday 25 October 2026
- Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain Friday 30 October 2026
Paris Saint Germain vs Troyes: questions and answers
When is Paris Saint Germain vs Troyes?
Paris Saint Germain vs Troyes is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 10.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Troyes played?
At Parc des Princes, Paris, Paris Saint Germain's home ground.
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Troyes?
Paris Saint Germain are the favourites: Paris Saint Germain 72%, draw 17%, Troyes 11%. Our prediction is Paris Saint Germain 2-0 Troyes.
Who is the player to watch in Paris Saint Germain vs Troyes?
Désiré Doué of Paris Saint Germain: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Paris Saint Germain vs Troyes?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.