Parma vs Bologna Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 11
Serie A · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma · updated 2026-10-24
Parma welcome Bologna to Stadio Ennio Tardini in Parma in Serie A Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Parma have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.6 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 14% of them. At home they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. Bologna have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 14% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Parma 30%, the draw 30%, Bologna 40%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Parma 1.04, Bologna 1.26.
- Over 2.5 goals: 40% · both teams to score: 47%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Parma: form and key numbers
In style Parma are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.94 a match created, 1.64 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.6).
- Shots: 10.7 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 43.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 43% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Bologna: form and key numbers
In style Bologna cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.35 a match created, 1.20 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.5).
- Shots: 12.4 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 48.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Parma vs Bologna: season averages side by side
| Parma | Per match this season | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 0.6 | Goals scored | 0.9 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 0.94 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.35 |
| 1.64 | xG conceded | 1.20 |
| 10.7 | Shots | 12.4 |
| 3.4 | On target | 3.6 |
| 43.7 | Possession % | 48.4 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 43% | Both teams scored % | 57% |
| 3.4 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.68 | Average rating | 6.77 |
Players to watch
Parma
- Adrián Bernabé CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 64 · Chance creator, Long passer (top 9% of his position)
- Emanuele Valeri LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 59 · Chance creator, Crosser (top 10% of his position)
Bologna
- Eivind Helland CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 65 · Secure passer, Ball-winner (top 9% of his position)
- Lewis Ferguson CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 62 · Secure passer, Ball circulator (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Juan Miranda
Juan Miranda, 26 · Bologna · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 62
Juan Miranda, 26, plays as a wing-back for Bologna in Serie A. Strongest for his role in tackles and accurate crosses. Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Accomplished, 64
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 62
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Tackles | 2.60 / 90 | 89% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.67 / 90 | 83% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.27 / 90 | 78% |
| Key passes | 1.86 / 90 | 75% |
| Interceptions | 1.30 / 90 | 75% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Attacking wing-back Wing-back
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Ball-winner, Crosser.
- What Juan Miranda is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Juan Miranda's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Parma vs Bologna prediction
Bologna should have more of the ball; Bologna work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 1.04 for Parma and 1.26 for Bologna - with over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams scoring at 47%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Parma 1-1 Bologna
Parma vs Bologna betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 2.30 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lecce vs Juventus Sunday 25 October 2026
- Udinese vs AC Milan Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sassuolo vs Lazio Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Torino vs Como Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Roma vs Cagliari Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Venezia vs Inter Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Parma vs Udinese Wednesday 28 October 2026
Parma vs Bologna: questions and answers
When is Parma vs Bologna?
Parma vs Bologna is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 17:00 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 11.
Where is Parma vs Bologna played?
At Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma, Parma's home ground.
Who will win Parma vs Bologna?
It is close: Parma 30%, draw 30%, Bologna 40%. Our prediction is Parma 1-1 Bologna.
Who is the player to watch in Parma vs Bologna?
Juan Miranda of Bologna: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Parma vs Bologna?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 40%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.