Porto vs Napoli Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 4
Champions League · Wednesday 4 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Estádio Do Dragão, Porto · updated 2026-10-21
Porto welcome Napoli to Estádio Do Dragão in Porto in Champions League Gameweek 4 action on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Porto have played 3 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 0.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate. Napoli have played 3 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Porto 40%, the draw 24%, Napoli 36%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Porto 1.69, Napoli 1.59.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 66%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (3 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Porto: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.00 a match created (goals minus xG: -1.0).
- Shots: 10.0 a match, 3.0 on target.
- Possession: 40.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 1.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.61.
Napoli: form and key numbers
In style Napoli keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.39 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.8).
- Shots: 11.0 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 44.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Porto vs Napoli: season averages side by side
| Porto | Per match this season | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Matches | 3 |
| 0.7 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 1.00 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.39 |
| 10.0 | Shots | 11.0 |
| 3.0 | On target | 4.7 |
| 40.0 | Possession % | 44.3 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 1.7 | Corners | 2.0 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 2.7 |
| 6.61 | Average rating | 6.75 |
Players to watch
Napoli
- Amir Rrahmani CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 70 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 2% of his position)
- Alex Meret GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 59 · Dominant in the air, Long passer (top 26% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Kevin De Bruyne
Kevin De Bruyne, 35 · Napoli · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 69
Kevin De Bruyne, 35, plays as an attacking midfielder for Napoli in Serie A. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected goals. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 69
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 65
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 64
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 4.40 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.68 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.43 / 90 | 91% |
| Through balls | 0.23 / 90 | 87% |
| Dispossessed | 0.69 / 90 | 83% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creator Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions, Creator.
- What Kevin De Bruyne is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Kevin De Bruyne's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Porto vs Napoli prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.69 for Porto and 1.59 for Napoli - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 66%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Porto 1-1 Napoli
Porto vs Napoli betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.29 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 66% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 3.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Champions League previews
- Galatasaray vs VfB Stuttgart Tuesday 3 November 2026
- Shakhtar Donetsk vs Sporting CP Tuesday 3 November 2026
- FC Barcelona vs Aston Villa Tuesday 3 November 2026
- Atlético de Madrid vs FC Bayern München Tuesday 3 November 2026
- Manchester United vs Roma Tuesday 3 November 2026
- Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain Tuesday 3 November 2026
- Feyenoord vs Inter Tuesday 3 November 2026
- Bodø / Glimt vs LOSC Lille Tuesday 3 November 2026
Porto vs Napoli: questions and answers
When is Porto vs Napoli?
Porto vs Napoli is on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 4.
Where is Porto vs Napoli played?
At Estádio Do Dragão, Porto, Porto's home ground.
Who will win Porto vs Napoli?
It is close: Porto 40%, draw 24%, Napoli 36%. Our prediction is Porto 1-1 Napoli.
Who is the player to watch in Porto vs Napoli?
Kevin De Bruyne of Napoli: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Porto vs Napoli?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.