Porto vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3
UEFA Champions League · Tuesday 20 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Porto welcome PSV Eindhoven to Estádio Do Dragão in Porto in UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Tuesday 20 October 2026.
Porto have played 2 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate. PSV Eindhoven have played 2 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Porto are narrow favourites at 58%, with the draw at 22% and PSV Eindhoven at 19%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Porto -1 at 2.03, PSV Eindhoven at 1.88. The main goals line is 3: over 1.86, under 2.02, which gives over 52%.
Porto: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.68 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.6).
- Shots: 8.0 a match, 2.5 on target.
- Possession: 40.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 1.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.57.
PSV Eindhoven: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.97 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.9).
- Shots: 10.5 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 55.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: season averages side by side
| Porto | Per match | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| 0.68 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.97 |
| 1.00 | Goals | 0.50 |
| 8.0 | Shots | 10.5 |
| 2.5 | Shots on target | 3.5 |
| 1.0 | Big chances missed | 1.0 |
| 17.5 | Tackles | 21.5 |
| 12.5 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 2 and 2 measured matches.
Porto vs PSV Eindhoven prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.19 for Porto and 1.34 for PSV Eindhoven - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 52%. Porto have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Porto 1-0 PSV Eindhoven
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Porto vs PSV Eindhoven betting tips
- Tip 1: Porto to win 58% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.52 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (46%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: questions and answers
When is Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
Porto vs PSV Eindhoven is on Tuesday 20 October 2026, in UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is Porto vs PSV Eindhoven played?
At Estádio Do Dragão, Porto, Porto's home ground.
Who will win Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
Porto are the favourites: Porto 58%, draw 22%, PSV Eindhoven 19%. Our prediction is Porto 1-0 PSV Eindhoven.
How many goals will there be in Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.