Portugal vs Wales: Prediction, Odds and Preview
UEFA Nations League A · Friday 25 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-07
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Portugal host Wales in the UEFA Nations League A on Friday 25 September 2026. The bookmakers make Portugal clear favourites at 74%, with the draw at 16% and Wales at 10%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.6% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Portugal -1.5 at 1.60, Wales at 2.08. The main goals line is 3: over 1.84, under 1.83, which gives over 50%.
Form in numbers
- Portugal create more: 2.67 expected goals a match against 2.46 for Wales.
- Portugal give away less, 1.12 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Portugal 15.7 (– on target), Wales 16.9 (– on target).
| Portugal | Per match | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 2.67 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.46 |
| 1.12 | xG conceded | 1.39 |
| 2.32 | Goals | 1.88 |
| 15.7 | Shots | 16.9 |
| 12.3 | Tackles | 17.0 |
| 7.8 | Fouls | 8.0 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 0.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 30 and 8 measured matches.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. This match is one of the free picks of its schedule.
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.