Racing Santander vs Real Madrid Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 11
La Liga · Sunday 1 November 2026 · 15:15 UTC · Campos de Sport de El Sardinero, Santander · updated 2026-10-18
Racing Santander welcome Real Madrid to Campos de Sport de El Sardinero in Santander in La Liga Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 15:15 UTC.
Racing Santander have played 8 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.9 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. Real Madrid have played 8 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 2.4 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 75% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Real Madrid are clear favourites at 66%, with the draw at 18% and Racing Santander at 16%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Racing Santander 1.33, Real Madrid 2.69.
- Over 2.5 goals: 76% · both teams to score: 69%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Racing Santander: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.33 a match created, 2.13 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.3).
- Shots: 11.5 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 48.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.67.
Real Madrid: form and key numbers
In style Real Madrid press high, take players on, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 2.24 a match created, 1.15 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.1).
- Shots: 17.9 a match, 7.1 on target.
- Possession: 51.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.08.
Racing Santander vs Real Madrid: season averages side by side
| Racing Santander | Per match this season | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 8 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 2.4 |
| 2.9 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.33 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.24 |
| 2.13 | xG conceded | 1.15 |
| 11.5 | Shots | 17.9 |
| 4.9 | On target | 7.1 |
| 48.8 | Possession % | 51.6 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 63% |
| 4.8 | Corners | 7.1 |
| 2.6 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.67 | Average rating | 7.08 |
Players to watch
Racing Santander
- Yassir Zabiri CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 64 · Clinical finisher, Rarely wastes a big chance (top 2% of his position)
- Iñigo Vicente LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 59 · Chance creator, Creator (top 2% of his position)
Real Madrid
- Vinicius Junior LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 77 · Draws fouls, High shot volume (top 1% of his position)
- Jude Bellingham AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 73 · Dribbler, Draws fouls (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Arda Güler
Arda Güler, 21 · Real Madrid · AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 87
Arda Güler, 21, plays as an attacking midfielder for Real Madrid in La Liga. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 87
- LW · Winger Competent, 75
- RW · Winger Competent, 75
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 5.92 / 90 | 99% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.85 / 90 | 99% |
| Big chances created | 1.69 / 90 | 99% |
| Through balls | 0.42 / 90 | 98% |
| Fouls won | 2.54 / 90 | 94% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Creator, Big-chance creator.
- What Arda Güler is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Arda Güler's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Racing Santander vs Real Madrid prediction
Real Madrid should have more of the ball; Real Madrid like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals - 1.33 for Racing Santander and 2.69 for Real Madrid - with over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams scoring at 69%. Real Madrid have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Racing Santander 1-2 Real Madrid
Racing Santander vs Real Madrid betting tips
- Tip 1: Real Madrid to win 66% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 76% by the model, 4.01 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 69% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More La Liga previews
- Levante vs Athletic Club Wednesday 21 October 2026
- Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga Friday 23 October 2026
- Rayo Vallecano vs Elche Saturday 24 October 2026
- Racing Santander vs Espanyol Saturday 24 October 2026
- Valencia vs Villarreal Saturday 24 October 2026
- Atlético de Madrid vs Deportivo A Coruña Saturday 24 October 2026
- Athletic Club vs Getafe Sunday 25 October 2026
- Celta de Vigo vs Real Betis Sunday 25 October 2026
Racing Santander vs Real Madrid: questions and answers
When is Racing Santander vs Real Madrid?
Racing Santander vs Real Madrid is on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 15:15 UTC, in La Liga Gameweek 11.
Where is Racing Santander vs Real Madrid played?
At Campos de Sport de El Sardinero, Santander, Racing Santander's home ground.
Who will win Racing Santander vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid are the favourites: Racing Santander 16%, draw 18%, Real Madrid 66%. Our prediction is Racing Santander 1-2 Real Madrid.
Who is the player to watch in Racing Santander vs Real Madrid?
Arda Güler of Real Madrid: a creator with a Moneyball Score of 87 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Racing Santander vs Real Madrid?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 76%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.