Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 8
La Liga · Saturday 10 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Rayo Vallecano welcome Athletic Bilbao to Estadio de Vallecas in Madrid in La Liga Gameweek 8 action on Saturday 10 October 2026.
Rayo Vallecano have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Athletic Bilbao have played 6 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Rayo Vallecano 31%, the draw 28%, Athletic Bilbao 41%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Rayo Vallecano 0 at 2.21, Athletic Bilbao at 1.72. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.94, under 1.94, which gives over 50%.
Rayo Vallecano: form and key numbers
In style Rayo Vallecano play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.90 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.6).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 48.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Athletic Bilbao: form and key numbers
In style Athletic Bilbao keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.55 a match created, 1.29 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.3).
- Shots: 15.7 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 52.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao: season averages side by side
| Rayo Vallecano | Per match | Athletic Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| 1.34 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.55 |
| 1.90 | xG conceded | 1.29 |
| 1.57 | Goals | 1.17 |
| 13.4 | Shots | 15.7 |
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 4.7 |
| 1.1 | Big chances missed | 1.5 |
| 42.7 | Pressure share % | 62.9 |
| 17.4 | Tackles | 16.3 |
| 13.4 | Fouls | 11.0 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 6 measured matches.
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Rayo Vallecano have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 3 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Rayo Vallecano 3, Athletic Bilbao 7 - 2.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Athletic Bilbao (February 28th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Rayo Vallecano won 0, drew 1 and lost 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 – 1 | Athletic Bilbao |
| 25 Aug 2025 | Athletic Bilbao | 1 – 0 | Rayo Vallecano |
| 13 Apr 2025 | Athletic Bilbao | 3 – 1 | Rayo Vallecano |
| 1 Dec 2024 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 – 2 | Athletic Bilbao |
Players to watch
Rayo Vallecano
- Unai López CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 62 · Long passer, Chance creator (top 5% of his position)
- Adrià Pedrosa LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 60 · Duel winner, Ball-winner (top 13% of his position)
Athletic Bilbao
- Yuri Berchiche LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 68 · Secure passer, Ball circulator (top 2% of his position)
- Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 64 · Dribbler, Long passer (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Sergio Camello
Sergio Camello, 25 · Rayo Vallecano · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 69
Sergio Camello, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Rayo Vallecano in La Liga. Strongest for his role in goals and shots on target. Weakest in aerial duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 69
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 / 90 | 97% |
| Shots on target | 58% | 85% |
| Key passes | 1.53 / 90 | 81% |
| Shots | 3.64 / 90 | 79% |
| Expected goals | 0.57 / 90 | 76% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, Accurate shooter, Chance creator.
⚠ 7 goals from only 3.0 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Sergio Camello is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Sergio Camello's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao prediction
Athletic Bilbao should have more of the ball; Rayo Vallecano go long and direct; Athletic Bilbao work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.39 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.61 for Athletic Bilbao - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 61%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Athletic Bilbao
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 2.99 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao: questions and answers
When is Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao?
Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao is on Saturday 10 October 2026, in La Liga Gameweek 8.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao played?
At Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid, Rayo Vallecano's home ground.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao?
It is close: Rayo Vallecano 31%, draw 28%, Athletic Bilbao 41%. Our prediction is Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Athletic Bilbao.
Who is the player to watch in Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao?
Sergio Camello of Rayo Vallecano: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Bilbao?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
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