Rayo Vallecano vs Elche CF Prediction and Betting Tips | La Liga Gameweek 10
La Liga · Saturday 24 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Rayo Vallecano welcome Elche CF to Estadio de Vallecas in Madrid in La Liga Gameweek 10 action on Saturday 24 October 2026.
Rayo Vallecano have played 7 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Elche CF have played 9 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 11% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Rayo Vallecano are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 26% and Elche CF at 22%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.4% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Rayo Vallecano -0.75 at 2.03, Elche CF at 1.88. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.90, under 1.98, which gives over 51%.
Rayo Vallecano: form and key numbers
In style Rayo Vallecano play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.90 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.6).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 48.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Elche CF: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.22 a match created, 1.56 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.1).
- Shots: 11.0 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 50.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche CF: season averages side by side
| Rayo Vallecano | Per match | Elche CF |
|---|---|---|
| 1.34 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.22 |
| 1.90 | xG conceded | 1.56 |
| 1.57 | Goals | 1.22 |
| 13.4 | Shots | 11.0 |
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 4.2 |
| 1.1 | Big chances missed | 1.1 |
| 46.2 | Pressure share % | 42.1 |
| 17.4 | Tackles | 15.1 |
| 13.4 | Fouls | 13.4 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 2.4 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 7 and 9 measured matches.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche CF: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Rayo Vallecano have won 1, drawn 0 and lost 1 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Rayo Vallecano 1, Elche CF 4 - 2.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Elche CF (April 3rd 2026).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Rayo Vallecano won 1, drew 0 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Apr 2026 | Rayo Vallecano | 1 – 0 | Elche CF |
| 21 Dec 2025 | Elche CF | 4 – 0 | Rayo Vallecano |
Players to watch
Rayo Vallecano
- Unai López CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 63 · Creator, Long passer (top 4% of his position)
- Adrià Pedrosa LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 60 · Creator, Ball-winner (top 16% of his position)
Elche CF
- Federico Redondo DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 70 · Reads the game, Secure passer (top 5% of his position)
- Fer Niño CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 62 · Accurate shooter, Duel winner (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Sergio Camello
Sergio Camello, 25 · Rayo Vallecano · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 70
Sergio Camello, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Rayo Vallecano in La Liga. Strongest for his role in goals and shots on target. Weakest in aerial duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 70
- SS · Second striker Competent, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 / 90 | 99% |
| Shots on target | 58% | 84% |
| Key passes | 1.53 / 90 | 81% |
| Shots | 3.64 / 90 | 79% |
| Expected goals | 0.57 / 90 | 75% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, Accurate shooter, Chance creator.
⚠ 7 goals from only 3.0 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Sergio Camello is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Sergio Camello's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche CF prediction
Elche CF should have more of the ball; Rayo Vallecano go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.79 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.49 for Elche CF - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 65%. Rayo Vallecano have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Elche CF
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche CF betting tips
- Tip 1: Rayo Vallecano win or draw (double chance) 78% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.28 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Rayo Vallecano vs Elche CF in the Match Centre Follow it live
More La Liga previews
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- Malaga CF vs Real Sociedad Sunday 18 October 2026
- Real Madrid vs Sevilla Sunday 18 October 2026
- Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano Monday 19 October 2026
- Levante vs Athletic Bilbao Wednesday 21 October 2026
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche CF: questions and answers
When is Rayo Vallecano vs Elche CF?
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche CF is on Saturday 24 October 2026, in La Liga Gameweek 10.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Elche CF played?
At Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid, Rayo Vallecano's home ground.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Elche CF?
Rayo Vallecano are the favourites: Rayo Vallecano 53%, draw 26%, Elche CF 22%. Our prediction is Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Elche CF.
Who is the player to watch in Rayo Vallecano vs Elche CF?
Sergio Camello of Rayo Vallecano: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Rayo Vallecano vs Elche CF?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.