RB Leipzig vs Manchester City Prediction and Betting Tips | Champions League Gameweek 4
Champions League · Wednesday 4 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Red Bull Arena, Leipzig · updated 2026-10-21
RB Leipzig welcome Manchester City to Red Bull Arena in Leipzig in Champions League Gameweek 4 action on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
RB Leipzig have played 6 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 2.7 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 4.7 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Manchester City have played 3 matches in the Champions League this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, RB Leipzig are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 20% and Manchester City at 34%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: RB Leipzig 2.33, Manchester City 1.99.
- Over 2.5 goals: 81% · both teams to score: 78%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 3 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
RB Leipzig: form and key numbers
In style RB Leipzig keep the ball, cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.19 a match created, 1.66 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.8).
- Shots: 17.8 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 52.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.00.
Manchester City: form and key numbers
In style Manchester City keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.54 a match created (goals minus xG: +1.4).
- Shots: 21.3 a match, 8.7 on target.
- Possession: 60.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.06.
RB Leipzig vs Manchester City: season averages side by side
| RB Leipzig | Per match this season | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 3 |
| 2.7 | Goals scored | 3.0 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 2.19 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.54 |
| 1.66 | xG conceded | – |
| 17.8 | Shots | 21.3 |
| 6.5 | On target | 8.7 |
| 52.7 | Possession % | 60.7 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 5.5 | Corners | 8.0 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 7.00 | Average rating | 7.06 |
Players to watch
RB Leipzig
- Tidiam Gomis LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 74 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 4% of his position)
- Antonio Nusa LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 72 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 2% of his position)
Manchester City
- Phil Foden AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 77 · Creator, Big-chance creator (top 5% of his position)
- Josko Gvardiol LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 72 · Duel winner, Dribbler (top 9% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Rayan Cherki
Rayan Cherki, 23 · Manchester City · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 78
Rayan Cherki, 23, plays as an attacking midfielder for Manchester City in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in pass accuracy and expected assists (est.). Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 78
- LW · Winger Competent, 71
- RW · Winger Competent, 71
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Pass accuracy | 92% | 94% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.40 / 90 | 90% |
| Key passes | 3.18 / 90 | 89% |
| Big chances created | 0.68 / 90 | 86% |
| Expected goals | 0.38 / 90 | 83% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Playmaker Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Secure passer, Creator, Chance creator.
- What Rayan Cherki is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Rayan Cherki's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
RB Leipzig vs Manchester City prediction
Manchester City should have more of the ball; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 4.3 goals - 2.33 for RB Leipzig and 1.99 for Manchester City - with over 2.5 goals at 81% and both teams scoring at 78%. RB Leipzig have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: RB Leipzig 2-1 Manchester City
RB Leipzig vs Manchester City betting tips
- Tip 1: RB Leipzig win or draw (double chance) 66% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 81% by the model, 4.33 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 78% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 13.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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RB Leipzig vs Manchester City: questions and answers
When is RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?
RB Leipzig vs Manchester City is on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Champions League Gameweek 4.
Where is RB Leipzig vs Manchester City played?
At Red Bull Arena, Leipzig, RB Leipzig's home ground.
Who will win RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?
RB Leipzig are the favourites: RB Leipzig 46%, draw 20%, Manchester City 34%. Our prediction is RB Leipzig 2-1 Manchester City.
Who is the player to watch in RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?
Rayan Cherki of Manchester City: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 78 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?
Moneyball's model expects about 4.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 81%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.