Real Madrid 1-0 Villarreal: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How Real Madrid won it

Yan Diomande put Real Madrid ahead in the 62nd minute, set up by Federico Valverde.

It was 0-0 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.

Vinicius Junior of Real Madrid was sent off in the 72nd minute. The referee, I. Díaz de Mera Escuderos, showed 8 yellow cards: 6 to Real Madrid and 2 to Villarreal.

Real Madrid: José Mourinho, 4-2-3-1 · Villarreal: I. Pérez Soto, 4-3-3.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

A Real Madrid win was the estimate's call at 57%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 2-1 was the likeliest, 1-0 the real one.

The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 3.8 and the match produced one.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 73%; with 1 goal the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 70%; they did not both score, against the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 0.79 for Real Madrid and 1.09 for Villarreal.

Villarreal left about 1.1 goals' worth of chances on the pitch.

Real Madrid had 4 shots on target, Villarreal 4.

Villarreal had 54% of the ball, but Real Madrid took the points.

A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Real Madrid came into it with 8 La Liga matches played, scoring 2.4 and conceding 1.0 a match, with 2.24 expected goals for and 1.15 against, and had won 75% of their matches.

Villarreal came into it with 8 La Liga matches played, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.6 a match, with 2.12 expected goals for and 1.31 against, and had won 25% of their matches.

Real Madrid vs Villarreal: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Alex Freeman (Villarreal), rated 7.9 by Sportmonks.

Real Madrid

• Federico Valverde 7.7 1 assist
• Yan Diomande 7.5 1 goal
• Thibaut Courtois 7.4
• Marc Cucurella 7.1
• Álvaro Carreras 7.1

Villarreal

• Alex Freeman 7.9
• Pape Gueye 7.3
• Alberto Moleiro 7.2
• Georges Mikautadze 6.8
• Péter Gulácsi 6.8

The lowest-rated starter was Sergi Cardona at 6.3. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Real Madrid: Real Madrid vs Sevilla Sunday 18 October 2026 · La Liga
• Villarreal: Villarreal vs Elche Saturday 17 October 2026 · La Liga

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Real Madrid vs Villarreal

What was the score in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?

Real Madrid 1-0 Villarreal (half-time 0-0), La Liga, Saturday 10 October 2026.

Who scored in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?

Yan Diomande 62'.

Did Moneyball predict Real Madrid vs Villarreal correctly?

A Real Madrid win was the estimate's call at 57%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 2-1 was the likeliest, 1-0 the real one.

Who was man of the match in Real Madrid vs Villarreal?

Alex Freeman, rated 7.9 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Real Madrid vs Villarreal?

I. Díaz de Mera Escuderos.