Roma vs Sassuolo Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 11
Serie A · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stadio Olimpico, Roma · updated 2026-10-24
Roma welcome Sassuolo to Stadio Olimpico in Roma in Serie A Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Roma have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 0.4 goals a game and winning 71% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 60% win rate. Sassuolo have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 29% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Roma are clear favourites at 68%, with the draw at 19% and Sassuolo at 14%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Roma 2.41, Sassuolo 1.00.
- Over 2.5 goals: 66% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Roma: form and key numbers
In style Roma keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.16 a match created, 1.05 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.8).
- Shots: 18.1 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 55.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 71% of matches (40% at home).
- Both teams scored in 29% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.09.
Sassuolo: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.68 a match created, 1.53 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 15.7 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 47.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Roma vs Sassuolo: season averages side by side
| Roma | Per match this season | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 2.3 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 0.4 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 2.16 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.68 |
| 1.05 | xG conceded | 1.53 |
| 18.1 | Shots | 15.7 |
| 6.0 | On target | 6.4 |
| 55.4 | Possession % | 47.7 |
| 71% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 29% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 5.1 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 7.09 | Average rating | 6.81 |
Players to watch
Roma
- Matías Soulé RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 71 · High shot volume, Crosser (top 5% of his position)
- Paulo Dybala SS · Link-up forward · Moneyball Score 69 · Chance creator, Creator (top 3% of his position)
Sassuolo
- Armand Laurienté LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 66 · High shot volume, Big-chance creator (top 9% of his position)
- Vasilije Adžić AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 65 · Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Donyell Malen
Donyell Malen, 27 · Roma · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 74
Donyell Malen, 27, plays as a centre-forward for Roma in Serie A. Strongest for his role in goals and expected goals. Weakest in aerial duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 74
- SS · Second striker Competent, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 1.14 / 90 | 97% |
| Shots | 4.97 / 90 | 97% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.23 xG/shot | 90% |
| Key passes | 1.81 / 90 | 89% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume.
- What Donyell Malen is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Donyell Malen's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Roma vs Sassuolo prediction
Roma should have more of the ball, with Sassuolo likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Roma work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 2.41 for Roma and 1.00 for Sassuolo - with over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 58%. Roma have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Roma 2-1 Sassuolo
Roma vs Sassuolo betting tips
- Tip 1: Roma to win 68% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 66% by the model, 3.41 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lecce vs Juventus Sunday 25 October 2026
- Udinese vs AC Milan Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sassuolo vs Lazio Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Torino vs Como Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Roma vs Cagliari Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Venezia vs Inter Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Parma vs Udinese Wednesday 28 October 2026
Roma vs Sassuolo: questions and answers
When is Roma vs Sassuolo?
Roma vs Sassuolo is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 11.
Where is Roma vs Sassuolo played?
At Stadio Olimpico, Roma, Roma's home ground.
Who will win Roma vs Sassuolo?
Roma are the favourites: Roma 68%, draw 19%, Sassuolo 14%. Our prediction is Roma 2-1 Sassuolo.
Who is the player to watch in Roma vs Sassuolo?
Donyell Malen of Roma: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Roma vs Sassuolo?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.