San Marino vs Finland: Prediction, Odds and Preview
UEFA Nations League C · Saturday 26 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-07
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San Marino host Finland in the UEFA Nations League C on Saturday 26 September 2026. The bookmakers make Finland clear favourites at 82%, with the draw at 13% and San Marino at 5%, once the margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (14.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is San Marino +2.25 at 1.96, Finland at 1.70. The main goals line is 3: over 1.76, under 1.89, which gives over 52%.
Form in numbers
- Finland create more: 1.56 expected goals a match against 0.47 for San Marino.
- Finland give away less, 1.57 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: San Marino 11.8 (– on target), Finland 11.8 (– on target).
| San Marino | Per match | Finland |
|---|---|---|
| 0.47 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.56 |
| 4.06 | xG conceded | 1.57 |
| 0.38 | Goals | 1.00 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 11.8 |
| 17.4 | Tackles | 14.9 |
| 14.4 | Fouls | 13.3 |
| 2.8 | Yellow cards | 0.9 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 24 and 24 measured matches.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.