Sassuolo vs Fiorentina Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 10
Serie A · Monday 2 November 2026 · 17:30 UTC · MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia · updated 2026-10-19
Sassuolo welcome Fiorentina to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia in Serie A Gameweek 10 action on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
Sassuolo have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Fiorentina have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.4 goals a game and winning 14% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Sassuolo are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 22% and Fiorentina at 25%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sassuolo 2.16, Fiorentina 1.47.
- Over 2.5 goals: 70% · both teams to score: 69%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Sassuolo: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.68 a match created, 1.53 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 15.7 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 47.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Fiorentina: form and key numbers
In style Fiorentina press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.67 a match created, 1.49 conceded (goals minus xG: -3.7).
- Shots: 16.6 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 46.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: season averages side by side
| Sassuolo | Per match this season | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 2.4 |
| 1.68 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.67 |
| 1.53 | xG conceded | 1.49 |
| 15.7 | Shots | 16.6 |
| 6.4 | On target | 5.4 |
| 47.7 | Possession % | 46.7 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.81 | Average rating | 6.68 |
Players to watch
Sassuolo
- Vasilije Adžić AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 66 · Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 8% of his position)
- Armand Laurienté LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 66 · High shot volume, Big-chance creator (top 9% of his position)
Fiorentina
- Nicolò Fagioli CMF · Box-to-box midfielder · Moneyball Score 61 · Dribbler, Ball circulator (top 6% of his position)
- Alieu Njie WMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 54 · Chance creator, Creator (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Franco Mastantuono
Franco Mastantuono, 19 · Fiorentina · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 70
Franco Mastantuono, 19, plays as a winger for Fiorentina in Serie A. Strongest for his role in shots and fouls won. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 70
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 66
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 65
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.53 / 90 | 97% |
| Fouls won | 2.51 / 90 | 92% |
| Expected goals | 0.41 / 90 | 87% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.68 / 90 | 86% |
| Key passes | 2.18 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Draws fouls, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Franco Mastantuono is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Franco Mastantuono's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina prediction
Sassuolo should have more of the ball; Fiorentina like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 2.16 for Sassuolo and 1.47 for Fiorentina - with over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 69%. Sassuolo have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Sassuolo 2-1 Fiorentina
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina betting tips
- Tip 1: Sassuolo win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 70% by the model, 3.62 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 69% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Torino vs Monza Friday 23 October 2026
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lecce vs Juventus Sunday 25 October 2026
- Udinese vs AC Milan Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sassuolo vs Lazio Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Torino vs Como Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Roma vs Cagliari Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Venezia vs Inter Wednesday 28 October 2026
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: questions and answers
When is Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina is on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 10.
Where is Sassuolo vs Fiorentina played?
At MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia, Sassuolo's home ground.
Who will win Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Sassuolo are the favourites: Sassuolo 53%, draw 22%, Fiorentina 25%. Our prediction is Sassuolo 2-1 Fiorentina.
Who is the player to watch in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Franco Mastantuono of Fiorentina: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sassuolo vs Fiorentina?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.