Sassuolo vs Lazio Prediction and Betting Tips | Serie A Gameweek 9
Serie A · Tuesday 27 October 2026 · 17:30 UTC · MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia · updated 2026-10-17
Sassuolo welcome Lazio to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Reggio Emilia in Serie A Gameweek 9 action on Tuesday 27 October 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
Sassuolo have played 7 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 29% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Lazio have played 6 matches in Serie A this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 83% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 60% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Sassuolo 34%, the draw 25%, Lazio 41%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sassuolo 1.47, Lazio 1.64.
- Over 2.5 goals: 60% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Sassuolo: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.68 a match created, 1.53 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 15.7 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 47.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 100% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Lazio: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.51 a match created, 1.41 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 13.5 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 49.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
Sassuolo vs Lazio: season averages side by side
| Sassuolo | Per match this season | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 6 |
| 1.7 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 0.7 |
| 1.68 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.51 |
| 1.53 | xG conceded | 1.41 |
| 15.7 | Shots | 13.5 |
| 6.4 | On target | 4.3 |
| 47.7 | Possession % | 49.7 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.81 | Average rating | 6.96 |
Players to watch
Sassuolo
- Armand Laurienté LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 65 · High shot volume, Big-chance creator (top 9% of his position)
- Nemanja Matić DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 59 · Hard to dribble past, Disciplined (top 6% of his position)
Lazio
- Christos Mandas GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Shot-stopper, Dominant in the air (top 17% of his position)
- Mattia Zaccagni LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 62 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Vasilije Adžić
Vasilije Adžić, 20 · Sassuolo · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 66
Vasilije Adžić, 20, plays as an attacking midfielder for Sassuolo in Serie A. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected goals. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 66
- LW · Winger Competent, 59
- RW · Winger Competent, 59
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.83 / 90 | 93% |
| Expected goals | 0.52 / 90 | 90% |
| Shots | 3.83 / 90 | 89% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.35 / 90 | 81% |
| Through balls | 0.00 / 90 | 73% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Creator Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume.
- What Vasilije Adžić is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Vasilije Adžić's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sassuolo vs Lazio prediction
Lazio should have more of the ball. Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals - 1.47 for Sassuolo and 1.64 for Lazio - with over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 63%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Sassuolo 1-1 Lazio
Sassuolo vs Lazio betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 60% by the model, 3.11 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Serie A previews
- Torino vs Monza Friday 23 October 2026
- Como vs Sassuolo Saturday 24 October 2026
- Cagliari vs Bologna Saturday 24 October 2026
- Napoli vs Roma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Lazio vs Parma Saturday 24 October 2026
- Inter vs Fiorentina Sunday 25 October 2026
- Genoa vs Venezia Sunday 25 October 2026
- Atalanta vs Frosinone Sunday 25 October 2026
Sassuolo vs Lazio: questions and answers
When is Sassuolo vs Lazio?
Sassuolo vs Lazio is on Tuesday 27 October 2026, kick-off 17:30 UTC, in Serie A Gameweek 9.
Where is Sassuolo vs Lazio played?
At MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Reggio Emilia, Sassuolo's home ground.
Who will win Sassuolo vs Lazio?
It is close: Sassuolo 34%, draw 25%, Lazio 41%. Our prediction is Sassuolo 1-1 Lazio.
Who is the player to watch in Sassuolo vs Lazio?
Vasilije Adžić of Sassuolo: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sassuolo vs Lazio?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.1 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.