SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich Prediction and Betting Tips
Bundesliga · Monday 26 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
SC Freiburg welcome Bayern Munich to Europa-Park Stadion in Freiburg im Breisgau in Bundesliga action on Monday 26 October 2026.
SC Freiburg have played 5 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 80% of them. At home they average 3.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 75% win rate. Bayern Munich have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 3.7 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Bayern Munich are clear favourites at 66%, with the draw at 17% and SC Freiburg at 17%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.6% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is SC Freiburg +1.5 at 1.93, Bayern Munich at 1.97. The main goals line is 4: over 1.95, under 1.93, which gives over 50%.
SC Freiburg: form and key numbers
In style SC Freiburg keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 2.06 a match created, 0.89 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.7).
- Shots: 17.2 a match, 6.0 on target.
- Possession: 52.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.01.
Bayern Munich: form and key numbers
In style Bayern Munich keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 3.21 a match created, 0.84 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.8).
- Shots: 24.3 a match, 10.3 on target.
- Possession: 69.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 9.7 a match.
- Discipline: 0.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.22.
SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich: season averages side by side
| SC Freiburg | Per match | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|
| 2.06 | Expected goals (xG) | 3.21 |
| 0.89 | xG conceded | 0.84 |
| 2.80 | Goals | 3.67 |
| 17.2 | Shots | 24.3 |
| 6.0 | Shots on target | 10.3 |
| 1.2 | Big chances missed | 3.8 |
| 68.9 | Pressure share % | 89.3 |
| 11.8 | Tackles | 12.8 |
| 10.4 | Fouls | 10.5 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 0.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 6 measured matches.
SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- SC Freiburg have won 0, drawn 0 and lost 4 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: SC Freiburg 5, Bayern Munich 13 - 4.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished SC Freiburg 2-3 Bayern Munich (April 4th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings SC Freiburg won 0, drew 0 and lost 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2026 | SC Freiburg | 2 – 3 | Bayern Munich |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Bayern Munich | 6 – 2 | SC Freiburg |
| 25 Jan 2025 | SC Freiburg | 1 – 2 | Bayern Munich |
| 1 Sep 2024 | Bayern Munich | 2 – 0 | SC Freiburg |
Players to watch
SC Freiburg
- Igor Matanovic CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 69 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
- Matthias Ginter CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 66 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 2% of his position)
Bayern Munich
- Ismael Saibari AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 75 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
- Luis Díaz LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 70 · High shot volume, Chance creator (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Michael Olise
Michael Olise, 24 · FC Bayern München · RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 90
Michael Olise, 24, plays as a winger for FC Bayern München in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in key passes and shots. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 90
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 87
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 86
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.91 / 90 | 99% |
| Shots | 5.03 / 90 | 98% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.86 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.56 / 90 | 97% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.42 / 90 | 97% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Classic winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Chance creator, High shot volume, Crosser.
- What Michael Olise is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Michael Olise's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich prediction
Bayern Munich should have more of the ball; SC Freiburg are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Bayern Munich like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals - 1.60 for SC Freiburg and 1.78 for Bayern Munich - with over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 67%. Bayern Munich have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: SC Freiburg 1-2 Bayern Munich
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich betting tips
- Tip 1: Bayern Munich to win 66% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 66% by the model, 3.38 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 67% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 15.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich: questions and answers
When is SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?
SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich is on Monday 26 October 2026, in the Bundesliga.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich played?
At Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau, SC Freiburg's home ground.
Who will win SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?
Bayern Munich are the favourites: SC Freiburg 17%, draw 17%, Bayern Munich 66%. Our prediction is SC Freiburg 1-2 Bayern Munich.
Who is the player to watch in SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?
Michael Olise of FC Bayern München: a classic winger with a Moneyball Score of 90 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 66%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.