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SC Freiburg 3-2 Jablonec: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

Full time: SC Freiburg 3-2 Jablonec

SC Freiburg beat Jablonec 3-2 in Europa Conference League Matchday 1 on Thursday 15 October 2026 at Europa-Park Stadion. The goals: Vincenzo Grifo 15', Antonin Rusek 28', Maximilian Eggestein 65', Garang Kuol 90+3'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.

How SC Freiburg won it

Vincenzo Grifo put SC Freiburg ahead in the 15th minute. Jablonec levelled at 1-1 in the 28th minute through Antonin Rusek, set up by Jiri Slama. An own goal by Dusan Pavlovic made it 2-1 to SC Freiburg in the 53rd minute. Maximilian Eggestein made it 3-1 to SC Freiburg in the 65th minute, set up by Lukas Kübler. Garang Kuol made it 3-2 to Jablonec in the 90th minute (+3), set up by Jan Chramosta.

It was 1-1 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.

The referee, E. Maļcevs, showed 4 yellow cards: 1 to SC Freiburg and 3 to Jablonec.

SC Freiburg: J. Schuster, 4-2-3-1 · Jablonec: L. Kozel, 4-2-3-1.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was HT SC Freiburg -0.50 at 1.69, and on the half-time score, 1-1 it lost.

The estimate's most likely result was a SC Freiburg win at 71%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 2-0 (12%).

The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 3.2 goals and there were 5.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 61%; with 5 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 51%; both did, in line with the estimate.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

SC Freiburg had 9 shots on target, Jablonec 2.

Jablonec's goalkeeper made 8 saves.

SC Freiburg had 60% of the ball and turned it into the win.

Where the two sides stood before this match

SC Freiburg came into it with 3 Europa Conference League matches played, scoring 3.3 and conceding 1.3 a match, with 3.07 expected goals for and – against, and had won 100% of their matches.

Jablonec came into it with 7 Europa Conference League matches played, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.1 a match, with 0.94 expected goals for and – against, and had won 57% of their matches.

SC Freiburg vs Jablonec: the match in numbers

SC FreiburgMatch statisticsJablonec
60%Ball possession40%
23Total shots11
9Shots on target2
4Big chances3
565Total passes371
91%Pass accuracy81%
5Corners1
19Fouls14
0Offsides2
13Tackles8
0Saves8
1Yellow cards3

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Vincenzo Grifo (SC Freiburg), rated 8.2 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.

SC Freiburg

Jablonec

The lowest-rated starter was Mio Backhaus at 6.1. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about SC Freiburg vs Jablonec

What was the score in SC Freiburg vs Jablonec?

SC Freiburg 3-2 Jablonec (half-time 1-1), Europa Conference League, Thursday 15 October 2026.

Who scored in SC Freiburg vs Jablonec?

Vincenzo Grifo 15', Antonin Rusek 28', Maximilian Eggestein 65', Garang Kuol 90+3'.

Did Moneyball predict SC Freiburg vs Jablonec correctly?

The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was HT SC Freiburg -0.50 at 1.69, and on the half-time score, 1-1 it lost.

Who was man of the match in SC Freiburg vs Jablonec?

Vincenzo Grifo, rated 8.2 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed SC Freiburg vs Jablonec?

E. Maļcevs.

Every match, before and after

Moneyball Odds writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.

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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over.