SC Freiburg 2-1 Schalke 04: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Bundesliga Matchday 5 · Sunday 11 October 2026 · Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau · referee M. Petersen · full time
Full time: SC Freiburg 2-1 Schalke 04
SC Freiburg 2-1 Schalke 04: SC Freiburg took the points in Bundesliga Matchday 5 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Europa-Park Stadion. The goals: Maximilian Eggestein 10', Adrian Gantenbein 30', Keisuke Goto 85'. Moneyball's pre-match estimate had the result right.
How SC Freiburg won it
SC Freiburg struck first through Maximilian Eggestein in the 10th minute. Schalke 04 levelled at 1-1 in the 30th minute through Adrian Gantenbein. Keisuke Goto made it 2-1 to SC Freiburg in the 85th minute, set up by Vincenzo Grifo.
It was 1-1 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
Yuito Suzuki of SC Freiburg was sent off in the 64th minute for a second yellow card. The referee, M. Petersen, showed 3 yellow cards: 2 to SC Freiburg and 1 to Schalke 04.
SC Freiburg: J. Schuster, 4-2-3-1 · Schalke 04: M. Muslić, 3-4-2-1.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
A SC Freiburg win was the estimate's call at 66%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 2-0 was the likeliest, 2-1 the real one.
On goals the estimate was close: about 3.3 expected, 3 scored.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 64%; with 3 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 57%; both did, in line with the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
On the day the expected goals were 0.47 for SC Freiburg and 1.26 for Schalke 04.
SC Freiburg scored about 1.5 more than their chances were worth: clinical finishing, or a goalkeeper having a bad day.
The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected SC Freiburg to create more, and Schalke 04 did.
SC Freiburg had 4 shots on target, Schalke 04 1.
SC Freiburg had 51% of the ball and turned it into the win.
A red card changed the shape of the match, and no pre-match model can see one coming.
Where the two sides stood before this match
SC Freiburg came into it with 5 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 2.8 and conceding 0.8 a match, with 2.06 expected goals for and 0.89 against, and had won 80% of their matches.
Schalke 04 came into it with 6 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.2 a match, with 1.08 expected goals for and 2.08 against, and had won 17% of their matches.
SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04: the match in numbers
| SC Freiburg | Match statistics | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| 51% | Ball possession | 49% |
| 0.47 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.26 |
| 10 | Total shots | 5 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 5 | Big chances | 0 |
| 427 | Total passes | 421 |
| 78% | Pass accuracy | 78% |
| 7 | Corners | 2 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Offsides | 5 |
| 15 | Tackles | 17 |
| 1 | Saves | 3 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Adrian Gantenbein (Schalke 04), rated 7.6 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.
SC Freiburg
- Maximilian Eggestein 7.6 1 goal
- Keisuke Goto 7.2 1 goal
- Niklas Beste 7.2
- Yannik Engelhardt 7.0
- Vincenzo Grifo 7.0 1 assist
Schalke 04
- Adrian Gantenbein 7.6 1 goal
- Nikola Katic 7.0
- Hasan Kuruçay 6.9
- Loris Karius 6.9
- Maximilian Wöber 6.9
The lowest-rated starter was Yuito Suzuki at 5.7. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- SC Freiburg: Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg Sunday 18 October 2026 · Bundesliga
- Schalke 04: FC Köln vs Schalke 04 Saturday 24 October 2026 · Bundesliga
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04
What was the score in SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
SC Freiburg 2-1 Schalke 04 (half-time 1-1), Bundesliga, Sunday 11 October 2026.
Who scored in SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
Maximilian Eggestein 10', Adrian Gantenbein 30', Keisuke Goto 85'.
Did Moneyball predict SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 correctly?
A SC Freiburg win was the estimate's call at 66%, and it came in. The exact score was another matter: 2-0 was the likeliest, 2-1 the real one.
Who was man of the match in SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
Adrian Gantenbein, rated 7.6 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04?
M. Petersen.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball Odds writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over.