SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 7
Bundesliga · Saturday 24 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
SC Paderborn 07 welcome Hamburger SV to Home Deluxe Arena in Paderborn in Bundesliga Gameweek 7 action on Saturday 24 October 2026.
SC Paderborn 07 have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Hamburger SV have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.5 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: SC Paderborn 07 40%, the draw 26%, Hamburger SV 34%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is SC Paderborn 07 0 at 1.80, Hamburger SV at 2.11. The main goals line is 3: over 2.00, under 1.89, which gives over 49%.
SC Paderborn 07: form and key numbers
In style SC Paderborn 07 play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.06 a match created, 1.81 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 3.0 on target.
- Possession: 46.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Hamburger SV: form and key numbers
In style Hamburger SV are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 0.96 a match created, 1.99 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.2).
- Shots: 11.2 a match, 3.7 on target.
- Possession: 39.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.65.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV: season averages side by side
| SC Paderborn 07 | Per match | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| 1.06 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.96 |
| 1.81 | xG conceded | 1.99 |
| 0.83 | Goals | 1.00 |
| 13.7 | Shots | 11.2 |
| 3.0 | Shots on target | 3.7 |
| 0.5 | Big chances missed | 1.2 |
| 34.5 | Pressure share % | 28.4 |
| 19.2 | Tackles | 15.7 |
| 10.5 | Fouls | 14.3 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 6 measured matches.
Players to watch
SC Paderborn 07
- Nahuel Noll GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 72 · Long passer, Box defender (top 2% of his position)
- Laurin Curda RMF · Two-way wide midfielder · Moneyball Score 57 · Chance creator, Ball-winner (top 13% of his position)
Hamburger SV
- Sebastiaan Bornauw CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 50 · Blocks shots, Box defender (top 11% of his position)
- Fábio Vieira AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 49 · Draws fouls, High shot volume (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Tjark Scheller
Tjark Scheller, 24 · Paderborn · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 64
Tjark Scheller, 24, plays as a centre-back for Paderborn in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in duels won and tackles. Weakest in interceptions. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 64
- DM · Defensive midfielder Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 6.56 / 90 | 91% |
| Tackles | 2.36 / 90 | 88% |
| Blocked shots | 1.18 / 90 | 83% |
| Aerial duels won | 2.86 / 90 | 78% |
| Clearances | 6.39 / 90 | 74% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★★ Box defender Centre-back
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Ball-winner, Blocks shots.
- What Tjark Scheller is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Tjark Scheller's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV prediction
SC Paderborn 07 should have more of the ball; SC Paderborn 07 are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.62 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.13 for Hamburger SV - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 55%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: SC Paderborn 07 1-1 Hamburger SV
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.75 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV: questions and answers
When is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV is on Saturday 24 October 2026, in Bundesliga Gameweek 7.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV played?
At Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn, SC Paderborn 07's home ground.
Who will win SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
It is close: SC Paderborn 07 40%, draw 26%, Hamburger SV 34%. Our prediction is SC Paderborn 07 1-1 Hamburger SV.
Who is the player to watch in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
Tjark Scheller of Paderborn: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.