Schalke 04 0-1 FSV Mainz 05: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings

How FSV Mainz 05 won it

FSV Mainz 05 struck first through Phillip Tietz in the 24th minute, set up by Anthony Caci.

It was 0-1 at half-time, and nothing changed after the break.

The referee, R. Hempel, showed 2 yellow cards: 0 to Schalke 04 and 2 to FSV Mainz 05.

Schalke 04: M. Muslić, 3-4-2-1 · FSV Mainz 05: U. Fischer, 3-5-2.

Moneyball's prediction against the result

A winning call: the Match Board's pick was FSV Mainz 05 -0.25 at 2.04, and 0-1 is a win for it.

The estimate's most likely result was a FSV Mainz 05 win at 47%, and that is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (11%).

The goals dried up: the estimate expected about 3.1 and the match produced one.

Over 2.5 goals had been put at 60%; with 1 goal the under came in, against the way the estimate leaned.

Both teams to score was 62%; they did not both score, against the estimate.

The bookmakers, margin removed, had a FSV Mainz 05 win at 41%, the same lean as Moneyball.

Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.

Why it went this way

On the day the expected goals were 0.98 for Schalke 04 and 0.36 for FSV Mainz 05.

The run of play itself went against the pre-match reading: Moneyball expected FSV Mainz 05 to create more, and Schalke 04 did.

Schalke 04 had 3 shots on target, FSV Mainz 05 6.

Schalke 04's goalkeeper made 5 saves.

FSV Mainz 05 had 54% of the ball and turned it into the win.

Where the two sides stood before this match

Schalke 04 came into it with 6 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.2 a match, with 1.08 expected goals for and 2.08 against, and had won 17% of their matches.

FSV Mainz 05 came into it with 6 Bundesliga matches played, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.7 a match, with 2.14 expected goals for and 1.66 against, and had won 50% of their matches.

Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: the match in numbers

Team statistics from Sportmonks.

Player ratings and man of the match

Man of the match: Phillip Tietz (FSV Mainz 05), rated 7.6 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.

Schalke 04

• Loris Karius 7.4
• Hasan Kuruçay 7.3
• Satoshi Tanaka 7.0
• Maximilian Wöber 6.8
• Kenan Karaman 6.8

FSV Mainz 05

• Phillip Tietz 7.6 1 goal
• Alexander Schwolow 7.5
• Stefan Posch 7.4
• Jae-sung Lee 7.3
• Kaishu Sano 7.2

The lowest-rated starter was Soufiane El-Faouzi at 6.2. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.

What comes next

• Schalke 04: FC Köln vs Schalke 04 Saturday 24 October 2026 · Bundesliga
• FSV Mainz 05: FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Saturday 24 October 2026 · Bundesliga

Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.

Questions about Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05

What was the score in Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?

Schalke 04 0-1 FSV Mainz 05 (half-time 0-1), Bundesliga, Saturday 17 October 2026.

Who scored in Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?

Phillip Tietz 24'.

Did Moneyball predict Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 correctly?

A winning call: the Match Board's pick was FSV Mainz 05 -0.25 at 2.04, and 0-1 is a win for it.

Who was man of the match in Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?

Phillip Tietz, rated 7.6 by Sportmonks.

Who refereed Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?

R. Hempel.