Serbia vs Greece Prediction and Betting Tips
UEFA Nations League A · Friday 25 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-17
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Serbia welcome Greece in UEFA Nations League A action on Friday 25 September 2026.
Serbia have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average. Greece have little league football behind them yet this season, so their numbers lean on the league average.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Serbia 35%, the draw 30%, Greece 36%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Serbia 0 at 1.85, Greece at 1.83. The main goals line is 2.25: over 1.80, under 1.86, which gives over 51%.
Serbia vs Greece: season averages side by side
| Serbia | Per match | Greece |
|---|---|---|
| 1.59 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.80 |
| 1.38 | xG conceded | 1.41 |
| 1.08 | Goals | 1.31 |
| 12.7 | Shots | 14.0 |
| 13.9 | Tackles | 16.0 |
| 11.6 | Fouls | 12.9 |
| 1.1 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 28 and 24 measured matches.
Serbia vs Greece prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.49 for Serbia and 1.23 for Greece - with over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 55%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Serbia 1-1 Greece
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Serbia vs Greece betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 36%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.71 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (51%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Serbia vs Greece: questions and answers
When is Serbia vs Greece?
Serbia vs Greece is on Friday 25 September 2026, in UEFA Nations League A.
Who will win Serbia vs Greece?
It is close: Serbia 35%, draw 30%, Greece 36%. Our prediction is Serbia 1-1 Greece.
How many goals will there be in Serbia vs Greece?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.