Serbia vs Greece: Prediction, Odds and Preview
UEFA Nations League A · Friday 25 September 2026 · played · updated 2026-10-07
This match has been played. The preview below is as it stood before kick-off.
Serbia host Greece in the UEFA Nations League A on Friday 25 September 2026. The prices see little between them: Serbia 35%, the draw 30%, Greece 36% once the bookmaker's margin is taken out.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Serbia 0 at 1.85, Greece at 1.83. The main goals line is 2.25: over 1.80, under 1.86, which gives over 51%.
Form in numbers
- Greece create more: 1.80 expected goals a match against 1.59 for Serbia.
- Serbia give away less, 1.38 expected goals conceded a match.
- Shots a match: Serbia 12.7 (– on target), Greece 14.0 (– on target).
| Serbia | Per match | Greece |
|---|---|---|
| 1.59 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.80 |
| 1.38 | xG conceded | 1.41 |
| 1.08 | Goals | 1.31 |
| 12.7 | Shots | 14.0 |
| 13.9 | Tackles | 16.0 |
| 11.6 | Fouls | 12.9 |
| 1.1 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 28 and 24 measured matches.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.