Sevilla vs Osasuna Prediction and Betting Tips
La Liga · Tuesday 27 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Sevilla welcome Osasuna to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán in Sevilla in La Liga action on Tuesday 27 October 2026.
Sevilla have played 8 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. Osasuna have played 8 matches in La Liga this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 3.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Sevilla are narrow favourites at 46%, with the draw at 29% and Osasuna at 25%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Sevilla -0.5 at 1.98, Osasuna at 1.93. The main goals line is 2.25: over 1.94, under 1.94, which gives over 50%.
Sevilla: form and key numbers
In style Sevilla are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.27 a match created, 1.50 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.9).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 42.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.1 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Osasuna: form and key numbers
In style Osasuna are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.22 a match created, 1.53 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.8).
- Shots: 9.6 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 45.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.62.
Sevilla vs Osasuna: season averages side by side
| Sevilla | Per match | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| 1.27 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.22 |
| 1.50 | xG conceded | 1.53 |
| 1.63 | Goals | 1.00 |
| 11.9 | Shots | 9.6 |
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 0.9 | Big chances missed | 1.1 |
| 46.2 | Pressure share % | 40.8 |
| 19.6 | Tackles | 16.5 |
| 14.8 | Fouls | 13.9 |
| 3.0 | Yellow cards | 2.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 8 and 8 measured matches.
Sevilla vs Osasuna: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Sevilla have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 3 of the last 6 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Sevilla 5, Osasuna 5 - 1.7 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Osasuna 2-1 Sevilla (April 26th 2026).
Head to head
In their last 6 meetings Sevilla won 2, drew 1 and lost 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Apr 2026 | Osasuna | 2 – 1 | Sevilla |
| 8 Nov 2025 | Sevilla | 1 – 0 | Osasuna |
| 24 Apr 2025 | Osasuna | 1 – 0 | Sevilla |
| 2 Dec 2024 | Sevilla | 1 – 1 | Osasuna |
| 3 May 2007 | Sevilla | 2 – 0 | Osasuna |
| 26 Apr 2007 | Osasuna | 1 – 0 | Sevilla |
Players to watch
Sevilla
- Gabriel Suazo LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 60 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 3% of his position)
- Félix Correia LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 58 · Press-resistant, Gets into scoring positions (top 11% of his position)
Osasuna
- Alejandro Catena CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 59 · Hard to dribble past, Long passer (top 1% of his position)
- Rubén García RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 47 · Crosser, Press-resistant (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ante Budimir
Ante Budimir, 35 · Osasuna · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 80
Ante Budimir, 35, plays as a centre-forward for Osasuna in La Liga. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and duels won. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 80
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.25 xG/shot | 96% |
| Duels won | 7.91 / 90 | 95% |
| Shots on target | 65% | 94% |
| Expected goals | 0.74 / 90 | 93% |
| Goals | 0.91 / 90 | 91% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Duel winner, Accurate shooter.
- What Ante Budimir is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ante Budimir's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sevilla vs Osasuna prediction
Osasuna should have more of the ball; Sevilla are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Osasuna go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.89 for Sevilla and 1.13 for Osasuna - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 58%. Sevilla have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Sevilla 2-1 Osasuna
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Sevilla vs Osasuna betting tips
- Tip 1: Sevilla win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 3.02 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 8.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 6.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More La Liga previews
- Osasuna vs Racing Santander Sunday 18 October 2026
- Celta Vigo vs Alaves Sunday 18 October 2026
- Malaga CF vs Real Sociedad Sunday 18 October 2026
- Real Madrid vs Sevilla Sunday 18 October 2026
- Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano Monday 19 October 2026
- Levante vs Athletic Bilbao Wednesday 21 October 2026
Sevilla vs Osasuna: questions and answers
When is Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Sevilla vs Osasuna is on Tuesday 27 October 2026, in La Liga.
Where is Sevilla vs Osasuna played?
At Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla, Sevilla's home ground.
Who will win Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Sevilla are the favourites: Sevilla 46%, draw 29%, Osasuna 25%. Our prediction is Sevilla 2-1 Osasuna.
Who is the player to watch in Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Ante Budimir of Osasuna: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 80 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.