Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 AEK Athens: Match Report, Goals, Stats and Ratings
Champions League Matchday 2 · Wednesday 14 October 2026 · Stamford Bridge, London · referee C. Kavanagh · full time
Full time: Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 AEK Athens
Shakhtar Donetsk beat AEK Athens 3-1 in Champions League Matchday 2 on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at Stamford Bridge. The goals: Lovro Majer 28', Pedrinho 34', Vinícius Tobias 80', Gleiker Mendoza 86'. It went against Moneyball's pre-match estimate.
How Shakhtar Donetsk won it
The opening goal came in the 28th minute: Lovro Majer for AEK Athens, set up by Stavros Pilios. Shakhtar Donetsk levelled at 1-1 in the 34th minute through Pedrinho from the penalty spot. Shakhtar Donetsk turned it round: Vinícius Tobias made it 2-1 in the 80th minute, set up by Alisson. Gleiker Mendoza made it 3-1 to Shakhtar Donetsk in the 86th minute, set up by Isaque.
It was 1-1 at half-time, and the second half changed the result.
The lead changed hands once.
The referee, C. Kavanagh, showed 5 yellow cards: 1 to Shakhtar Donetsk and 4 to AEK Athens.
Shakhtar Donetsk: A. Turan, 4-1-4-1 · AEK Athens: M. Nikolić, 4-4-2.
Moneyball's prediction against the result
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 2.75 at 1.83, and on 3-1 it lost.
The estimate's most likely result was an AEK Athens win at 37%; a Shakhtar Donetsk win, at 36%, is what happened. Its single most likely score was 1-1 (13%).
The match had far more goals than expected: the estimate was about 2.8 goals and there were 4.
Over 2.5 goals had been put at 53%; with 4 goals the over came in, as the estimate leaned.
Both teams to score was 57%; both did, in line with the estimate.
Computed before kick-off from both sides' season goals and expected goals as of 2026-10-09, through a Dixon-Coles score model, and left as it was.
Why it went this way
Shakhtar Donetsk had 4 shots on target, AEK Athens 3.
Shakhtar Donetsk had 54% of the ball and turned it into the win.
Where the two sides stood before this match
Shakhtar Donetsk came into it with 2 Champions League matches played, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 a match, with 0.92 expected goals for and – against, and had won 50% of their matches.
AEK Athens came into it with 4 Champions League matches played, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.8 a match, with 1.69 expected goals for and – against, and had won 50% of their matches.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens: the match in numbers
| Shakhtar Donetsk | Match statistics | AEK Athens |
|---|---|---|
| 54% | Ball possession | 46% |
| 12 | Total shots | 13 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 2 | Big chances | 5 |
| 446 | Total passes | 371 |
| 90% | Pass accuracy | 86% |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 16 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Offsides | 2 |
| 20 | Tackles | 19 |
| 2 | Saves | 1 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
Team statistics from Sportmonks.
Player ratings and man of the match
Man of the match: Vinícius Tobias (Shakhtar Donetsk), rated 8.0 by Sportmonks, with 1 goal.
Shakhtar Donetsk
- Vinícius Tobias 8.0 1 goal
- Alisson 7.8 1 assist
- Pedro Henrique 7.4
- Gleiker Mendoza 7.4 1 goal
- Pedrinho 7.0 1 goal
AEK Athens
- Lovro Majer 7.7 1 goal
- Luka Jović 7.1
- Răzvan Marin 7.0
- Stavros Pilios 6.8 1 assist
- Harold Moukoudi 6.7
The lowest-rated starter was Filipe Relvas at 6.0. Ratings run from 0 to 10; around 7.0 is a solid match.
What comes next
- Shakhtar Donetsk: Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk Wednesday 21 October 2026 · Champions League
- AEK Athens: Manchester City vs AEK Athens Tuesday 20 October 2026 · Champions League
Each preview has Moneyball's estimate for the next match, published before kick-off and marked against the result afterwards, as this one is.
Questions about Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens
What was the score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens?
Shakhtar Donetsk 3-1 AEK Athens (half-time 1-1), Champions League, Wednesday 14 October 2026.
Who scored in Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens?
Lovro Majer 28', Pedrinho 34', Vinícius Tobias 80', Gleiker Mendoza 86'.
Did Moneyball predict Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens correctly?
The prediction missed. Moneyball's pick on the Match Board was Under 2.75 at 1.83, and on 3-1 it lost.
Who was man of the match in Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens?
Vinícius Tobias, rated 8.0 by Sportmonks.
Who refereed Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens?
C. Kavanagh.
Every match, before and after
Moneyball Odds writes a preview with its estimate before every match of Europe's top five leagues and the European cups, then marks it against the result, hits and misses alike.
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over.